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Floods, droughts, melting ice… The multiplication of extreme water-related events is inevitable, but adequate warning systems warning even the most isolated people could at least limit victims and damage.
A year ago, the UN set itself the ambitious goal that by 2027, everyone on Earth can be warned of an impending extreme weather event, a program costing 3.1 billion dollars.
“We have shown that you get back at least ten times the money when you invest in these services“which are only present” in half “of the countries of the world, insisted Thursday Petteri Taalas, boss of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), who made a commitment on the occasion of the UN conference on water to accelerate implementation, starting with water-related disasters.
Floods and droughts account for 75% of climatic disasters, which are set to increase further under the effect of global warming.
The principle of warning systems seems simple: assess risks based on systematic data collection, identify using weather forecasting models, prepare the population upstream, and warn them when danger comes their way so that they can adapt his behavior.
And it works, say the experts. Thus, despite the “unprecedented floods” generated by the recent cyclone Freddy in Mozambique, Malawi and Madagascar, “adequate early warnings combined with disaster management on the ground have made it possible to limit the number of victims”, estimates Mr Taalas.
But each step and each potential disaster presents its own challenges.
Climatologists thus underline the impossibility of reliable climatic models on whole sections of the planet where weather data are at best incomplete.
“Tajikistan’s weather services have paper data for 100 years. If we could digitize them, we might have more accurate predictions. Big impact with little investment“, gives as an example Bahodur Sheralizoda, president of the Committee for the protection of the environment of this country, vulnerable to the floods caused by the accelerated melting of the glaciers.
In numerous countries, “there are also gaps in terms of human capacity to run the models locally“, explains to AFP Stefan Uhlenbrook, director of water at the OMM.
Bells, sirens or SMS
At the other end of the chain, informing and preparing 100% of the inhabitants is also a challenge.
“Reaching the poor, reaching the last mile, and getting them to act and prepare is a big challenge“, emphasizes Stefan Uhlenbrook.
This is where the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), WMO’s partner in the field, comes into play.
For its secretary general Jagan Chapagain, Bangladesh is a model to “replicate”. For decades, the country has built shelters resistant to cyclones and warns even the most distant inhabitants, “by bike” if necessary, he told AFP.
If church bells, loudspeakers or sirens still serve as alerts in certain isolated places, radio, TV and mobile phones have largely taken over.
“SMS alerts can only target residents of a risk area“, explains Ursula Wynhoven, representative of the International Telecommunication Union. But for the moment “few developing countries have set up these systems”.
And alerting uneducated populations is not enough.
“When people understand the logic, it works better,” says Jagan Chapagain. “It takes regular training and exercises“, explain which routes to take to evacuate, or even learn to swim.
Without forgetting the question of the evacuation of animals, “means of subsistence” of many communities, he continues.
At the other extreme, climatic catastrophes, bells or sirens would be useless against the absence of water.
“Droughts are on another timescale“, emphasizes Stefan Uhlenbrook, noting that farmers can, however, anticipate.
So, after this dry and warm winter in Europe, “do not sow if you are growing rice in the po valley in italy“, he launches.
It is still necessary, in certain countries, to be able to change culture at the last moment in order to survive. And be notified in time.
“Advances in climate science make it possible to advance forecasts to more weeks, several months“, notes Sarah Kapnick, of the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), which plans to deploy weather stations from 3D printers around the world.
“In developing countries with agriculture-dependent economies, early warning systems based on seasonal forecasts are essential for planning for food security.“.