Ciotti winner, an unsurprising result on the right

Ciotti winner an unsurprising result on the right

PRESIDENT LR. The Republicans have chosen Eric Ciotti to straighten out the right. The deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes was elected president of the party with 53.7% of the vote against Bruno Retailleau, on Sunday December 11, 2022.

[Mis à jour le 12 décembre 2022 à 8h06] “We won ! […] It all starts today. In unity and clarity, we will straighten out the right!” In a few words published on Twitter, Eric Ciotti celebrated his victory and his election as head of the Republicans. After three months of campaigning and a race in the lead against Aurélien Pradié and Bruno Retailleau, the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes won against his peers on Sunday December 11, 2022 with 53.7% of the vote. The victory is clear but the gap is slightly smaller than expected, the Vendée senator Bruno Retailleau having obtained more than 46% of the votes of the members.The defeated candidate and the man eliminated in the first round of the election of the president of LR, Aurélien Pradié, were congratulated by the new leader of the right for their “campaign courageous” and their “strong convictions”. Convictions with which they will have to deal to strengthen and unite the different branches of the right. A major challenge for the elected southerner.

The reconciliation seems to have been made, at least for some of the supporters of Aurélien Pradié who, if he had not given voting instructions for the second round, had slipped into a letter clues suggesting his preference for Eric Ciotti. The deputy from Nice can also count on other right-wing heavyweights with the support of François Baroin or his predecessor Christian Jacob. Still, the personality of Eric Ciotti divides some of the members, many of whom have announced their departure from the party in the event of victory for the Niçois. Will they match words with deeds? Be that as it may, the new LR president now has all the powers in hand to impose his right-wing line on the traditional party, weakened since the disaster of the 2022 presidential election. Eric Ciotti also judges that his policy is to even to raise the right and is already heading for the presidential election of 2027 for which he should appoint Laurent Wauquiez as LR candidate, one of his campaign promises. But until then, the task of the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes will not be easy because before hoping to weigh heavily in five years, it is necessary to redefine the LR line, courted by the presidential majority and part of which is tempted by the far right.

What are the results of the election of President LR?

Eric Ciotti obtained the absolute majority of the votes with 53.7% of the votes in his favor during the second round of the election of the president of the Republicans. Facing him, the Vendée senator Bruno Retailleau won 46.3% of the vote after two days of voting, December 10 and 11, 2022, an honorable but insufficient score against the one who presented himself throughout the campaign as the favorite of the ballot.

The deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes had already won in the first round, on December 3 and 4. While 72.67% of the 91,109 registered had spoken. Eric Ciotti had obtained 28,297 votes, or 42.73% of the votes, while Bruno Retailleau was strong with 22,815 votes, or 34.45% of the votes. In third place, Aurélien Pradié gathered 14,765 votes, or 22.29% of the votes cast.

During the campaign preceding the first round of the election of the new president of the Republicans, Bruno Retailleau, Eric Ciotti and Aurélien Pradié all three spoke out against an alliance with the presidential majority. A common position which seems to be out of step with the wishes of LR supporters, according to the political barometer Odoxa-Mascaret produced for LCP, Public Senate and The Dispatch, and published at the end of November. Indeed, 73% of LR supporters questioned in this poll say they are in favor of Les Républicains joining an alliance, and 45% of them are in favor of an alliance with the presidential majority.

A position of LR sympathizers which seems to have been heard by Bruno Retailleau. The Vendée senator indeed indicated in an interview with Parisian on December 5, the day after the results of the first round, that he would organise, if elected, a referendum within the party before the end of the year on the question: “Yes or no, do you want an alliance with Emmanuel Macron? Bruno Retailleau nevertheless specified that he had never voted for the President of the Republic, and had never “considered any alliance”.

In any case, what is at stake in this election for the presidency of the Republicans seems of little importance for a large part of the French people, according to a Cluster17 poll carried out for Point and published Saturday, December 3. In fact, in this study, 72% of those questioned believe that Les Républicains have no political future. It should be noted that no polling institute has carried out a poll on voting intentions, given the actual number of voters, which is too low to constitute a sufficiently robust sample to produce reliable results.

As during the primary organized to designate the party’s candidate for the presidential election, only up-to-date members can take part in the vote to elect the future president of the Republicans. The election regulations indicate that only people who have paid their dues 30 days before the ballot, i.e. November 3, 2022, can participate in this congress. Thus, 91,109 people are called upon to vote for the second round, which will take place on Saturday 10 and Sunday 11 December. In 2019, when Christian Jacob was elected, 131,514 people were registered, but only 62,401 voted. In 2017, when Laurent Wauquiez won, 234,556 voters were eligible to vote and 98,543 participated.

The resignation of Christian Jacob made some waves. Former minister, former mayor of Provins and ex-president of the UMP group then LR in the Assembly (from 2010 to 2019), he took the lead of the party in October 2019. Known for his ability to federate, he had brought the party together in view of the 2022 electoral period. However, the formation, weakened by the results of the elections, is today crossed by quite diverse political and ideological lines, threatening its unity. Few subjects there are unanimous, starting with the legacy left by Christian Jacob. The world quoted as such the admiration of Aurélien Pradié for his former president “Chiraquian”, who knew how to transmit his experience to the new guard. But the media also quoted MEP Brice Hortefeux, who is more nuanced about the former boss, referring to his lack of incarnation of the function and his “non-presidential” side.

In addition, this departure from rue Vaugirard took place when the President of the Republic was in the midst of negotiations with the leaders of the opposition party. The LR group in fact occupies a role of choice within this new Assembly without a majority, torn between two oppositions that could not be more divergent (namely the Nupes and the RN). With some 70 deputies, the Republican right could be the adequate ally of a presidential camp in difficulty since the loss of the absolute majority on June 19th. The choice of its leader will therefore be crucial in the future of French political life and will determine part of the balance of power within the hemicycle.

The party is reorganizing itself as a whole. The election of Olivier Marleix at the head of the parliamentary group on June 22 marked a turning point, shortly after the departure of Damien Abad, conquered by the macronie. And the changes don’t stop there. Cécile Richez, until then the party’s communications director, has been replaced by Marie-Eve Malouines, Annie Genevard’s current communications officer. For her part, Cécile Richez became the party’s general manager in September.

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