9:02 p.m., Sunday June 9. France falls into a dizzying unknown, after the presidential announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly. Since then, each day has had its share of surprises. This Wednesday, June 12, it was the settling of scores at Les Républicains, a party shaken after the change of heart of its boss Eric Ciotti, which punctuated the political-media arena. Almost overshadowing Emmanuel Macron who spoke to the press for almost an hour and a half late in the morning.
Sentence of the day: “I don’t want to give the keys to power to the RN”
Heard at the Pavillon Cambon Capucine, in Paris, this Wednesday morning, the formula is reminiscent of a promise made in 2017 by the same Emmanuel Macron, then candidate for the presidential election: “I will do everything so that in the next five years, they [NDLR : les électeurs du Rassemblement national] no longer have any reason to vote for the extremes.”
At the time, the commitment seemed achievable. Seven years later, while the RN comes first by amassing more than double the votes obtained by the majority in the European elections, it now appears chimerical. Observation that the President of the Republic has integrated well. This is how he justifies his choice, described by many observers as irrational, to dissolve the National Assembly. “The parliamentary equation was becoming difficult to maintain: the oppositions wanted a motion of censure in the fall.”
A bold way to stay in control of your second five-year term. And clocks, always. But can he even do it? Since Sunday evening, Emmanuel Macron has found himself suspended from the results of July 7, the second round of the early legislative elections. It is therefore impossible to project oneself. During his one and a half hour press conference, the president limited himself to outlining a few consensual measures: indexing of retirement pensions to inflation, banning cell phones for minors under 11, and social networks for those under 11. 15 years… Sandrine Rousseau’s reaction to X? “Fascism is at the gates of power […] What are you talking to us about man?”
Marion Maréchal chooses the RN
The Reconquest candidate in the European elections, Marion Maréchal, called this Wednesday to vote for the candidates of the alliance between the National Rally and the excluded Republican boss Eric Ciotti in the early legislative elections, denouncing the “triple fault” of Eric Zemmour who wishes to present Reconquest candidates against the RN.
“Presenting Reconquest candidates in legislative constituencies means taking the infinite risk of winning Macronist or far-left deputies,” she said, refusing to “participate in yet another division of the right” and marking a divide with the president of his party, Eric Zemmour.
Today’s figure: 230 constituencies
Although arriving behind the PS-Place publique list in the European elections, La France insoumise has lost none of its deliciousness. At the end of the third day of negotiations for the creation of a “Popular Front”, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s movement served itself the biggest share of the pie: some 230 constituencies out of a total of 577. This is however less than at the time of the late Nupes, when the Insoumis had reserved no less than 328 constituencies.
Environmentalists have also lost a few feathers since the agreement signed the day after the 2022 presidential election. From 110 constituencies, the Greens party falls to 92. A drop attributable to the poor score of the list led by Marie Toussaint in the European ballot. Unlike the communists who, even if they failed to send deputies to Strasbourg, retain the quantum of 2022: 50 constituencies.
Ultimately, the big winners from this agreement could well be the socialists. The rose party ended up obtaining 175 constituencies. This is almost a hundred more than in the 2022 legislative elections. A nice move, which is not unrelated to the success in the European elections of Raphaël Glucksmann, whose list trails that of the presidential majority by less than one point. .
The pass of arms of the day: Eric Ciotti excluded from LR
Shortly before 5 p.m. this Wednesday, the ax fell. Eric Ciotti has been excluded from the Republicans, which he has chaired since December 2022. The highest sanction that a party can inflict on one of its members. Direct consequence of his proposed alliance with the National Rally this Tuesday on the 1 p.m. news. Annie Genevard, former general secretary of the party, and François-Xavier Bellamy will be responsible for acting as head of the movement.
The decision was taken “unanimously” by the Republican political bureau, which met in the absence of Eric Ciotti in the middle of the afternoon not far from LR headquarters. At the end of the morning, the door of 238 rue de Vaugirard was closed at the request of the late president of the Republicans, in order to “guarantee the safety of staff”.
The sanction decided by the LR executives was brushed aside by the person concerned. Eric Ciotti released a press release on And to conclude his tweet with a brief “I am and remain the president of our political party, elected by the members”. The day before, he had assured that “only activists” were able to dismiss him. It will therefore be lawyers against lawyers.
Today’s poll: the RN at 31%, the united left at 28% and the majority at 18%
The RN would obtain 31% of the votes in the first round of the legislative elections on June 30, ahead of the left alliance at 28%, the majority at 18% and LR at 6.5%, according to an Elabe poll which gives a relative majority in seats to the party of Jordan Bardella at the end of the second round on July 7.
In this investigation produced for BFMTV and La Tribune Sunday“depending on the current balance of power measured in voting intention and the result in previous elections, the National Rally would obtain between 220 and 270 seats, the left alliance between 150 and 190 seats, Renaissance/allies between 90 and 130 seats, LR/DVD between 30 and 40 seats and the other political forces between 10 and 20 seats.
Podcast of the day
After the thunderclap of the European elections and the dissolution of the Assembly, journalists from the political service of L’Express are embarking on a new campaign: that of the legislative elections.
The video of the day
Paul Chaulet, political journalist at L’Express deciphers the reversal of Eric Ciotti, who proposes an “alliance” with the National Rally.