This is a first since the beginning of the war: China announced, this Wednesday, April 26, that it would send a delegation to Ukraine to seek a “political settlement” of the conflict, after the announcement of the telephone call between Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelenzky. The Ukrainian president said he had a “long and meaningful” meeting with his Chinese counterpart, the first direct contact between the two leaders since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. Xi Jinping assured Kiev that “China has always been on the side of peace” and called for “negotiation”, during the telephone interview, said state television CCTV.
For Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and specialist in China, this announcement is above all a communication operation, intended for China to better reposition itself in the conflict. Interview.
L’Express: What does this announcement mean to you? Is China in a communication operation?
The sending of a delegation is more akin to a continuation of the dialogue with the Ukrainians than to a real desire to find a solution to the conflict in the short term. In this sense, China is still not a mediator and does not seek to be. The Chinese government’s special representative in charge of Eurasia since 2019, Ambassador Li Hui, is also a former Russian ambassador (2009-2019), so some fear a greater proximity with Moscow than with Kiev.
We are here above all in a Chinese communication effort, even if we should be delighted that there is finally an exchange at the highest level. As a reminder, Xi Jinping had for the moment refused all requests for exchanges with Volodymyr Zelensky while he exchanged at the same time a dozen times with Vladimir Putin: meetings, calls and exchanges of letters.
Why did China delay contact with Ukraine?
Because of its proximity to Russia, China knew very well that by calling on Ukraine there was a risk of putting forward a form of distancing with its partner. Moreover, the Chinese government does not have much to say to its Ukrainian counterpart, because economically, politically and diplomatically it supports Russia.
Why is she doing it now? There are several hypotheses. First, all European countries, including France during Emmanuel Macron’s state visit, encouraged the Chinese leader to discuss with his Ukrainian counterpart. By calling Zelensky, Xi Jinping is also giving arguments to states that believe that China has a role to play in resolving the conflict. This also makes it possible to slow down the strengthening of transatlantic cooperation desired by certain countries of central and eastern Europe. Finally, I think that the unjustifiable remarks of the Chinese ambassador to France Lu Shaye may have accelerated the Chinese agenda. As there are doubts about the Chinese position in this war, this appeal, then the announcement of the dispatch of this delegation, reassures certain States.
Can this announcement change Russia’s position?
Russia will not budge, and there is little doubt that this will change anything. China has not sent any signals showing that it has changed its position and reviewed its support for Russia. There is even a paradox: while Xi Jinping recalls the importance of the sovereignty of each country, enshrined in the UN charter, he does not at any time condemn Russian aggression.
China’s defense minister was in Russia for several days recently, and there is no sign of China distancing itself from Russia. With Beijing, you always have to compare its declarations and what it really does, and compare what it does with Russia and what it does with Ukraine.