China, with the world’s largest navy and an increased military budget, poses a dangerous threat to Taiwan. But few observers in the island nation believe in a military attack in the near future, partly because the consequences will be dramatic for the world economy.
Many ordinary Taiwanese, however, both believe and hope for peace.
We meet fisherman Chang Guo-long from Bali District in northern Taiwan. He hauls in his net and notes that there was a smaller catch today as well. He doesn’t think China will attack.
– It’s probably not that likely. The consequences will be great. Problems arise for the Chinese, for us and for everyone in the world. They will also suffer if there is a war, says Guo-long, pointing towards the Taiwan Strait.
The world’s largest fleet
China now has the world’s largest navy and the Chinese combat forces both in the air and at sea carry out daily provocations close to Taiwan’s borders. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that the incorporation of Taiwan is a priority issue. It will be gone. The question is when.
Assistant Professor at Soochow University in Taipei, Chen Fang-yu believes that it is important for Taiwan to have strong defense capabilities. Although China may not be ready right now, they will never give up Taiwan
– The situation at the Taiwan Strait is dangerous. We don’t know when China will choose to strike, although it will hardly be immediate, he says.
The Swedish journalist and writer Jojje Olsson who lives in Taiwan also emphasizes that even if China currently lacks the capacity to launch a full-scale invasion, the Beijing regime has a well-stocked toolbox of more limited military measures that could be just as damaging to the newly elected President Lai Ching-tes new government and for the people of Taiwan in general.
– China could start a blockade of Taiwan, cut off exports and imports. Beijing can also attack and conquer some of the small Taiwanese islands that are close to the Chinese mainland, says Jojje Olsson.
Stronger measures are expected
The Chinese leadership is also expected to tighten its punitive measures against Taiwan. For example, buying over more diplomatic allies like the Pacific nation of Nauru (severed diplomatic ties with Taipei on Monday and shifted its allegiance to Beijing).
For fisherman Guolong, the future looks uncertain. But he refuses to give up faith in the future:
– If they just stay peaceful, we will also keep everything peaceful and calm, he says and continues to whiten the net in the warm winter sun by the Taiwan Strait.
– To coexist in peace .. that is best for all of us.