Russian tanks enter Estonia, Madagascar retakes the Scattered Islands from France, Erdogan’s Turkey attacks the Imia Islands, the Charles-de-Gaulle sunk by China, Mali falls into the hands of jihadists… With the help of Forty researchers, diplomats, generals and former members of the intelligence services, L’Express has developed five credible hypotheses leading to a French military response: black scenarios that overlap with those on which the French army is already working and on which it is preparing. Check out our long format video on our YouTube channel.
EPISODE 1 – March 2026: Putin launches special operation in Estonia
EPISODE 2 – August 2028: France loses the Scattered Islands off Madagascar
EPISODE 3 – February 2027: Erdogan attacks two Greek islands, France intervenes.
EPISODE 4 – November 2024: Mali falls into the hands of the jihadists
This fifth and last dark scenario takes us to the Taiwan Strait, where tensions with Beijing continue to grow. Again last July, two-day military exercises were organized by the Taipei authorities, simulating an attack by the Chinese army. Taiwanese democracy takes seriously the statements of President Xi Jinping, who does not rule out the violent option to bring this small island state and its 23 million inhabitants back into the fold of the People’s Republic.
“Chinese growth is slowing down, and nationalism is increasingly used by the regime as a tool of legitimization,” notes Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “If China wants to become a great power, it must be able to deploy by sea,” adds Admiral Ausseur, president of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies. The two specialists played with us the fictitious scenario of a blockade of the island in 2026, wondering what the American and French reactions would be then. Their analyzes can be found in this long video format, available on our YouTube channel.
Thumbnail credit: MARCO LONGARI/AFP – Bertrand GUAY/AFP – L’Express – Istock