A possible escalation in the trade war between China and the United States if Donald Trump is re-elected president on November 5. The Republican candidate announced during his campaign that he wanted to increase customs duties on Chinese imports to 60%. But Beijing has learned the lessons of Trump’s first term.
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The tone is set. For economist Nick Marro, “ No matter who is elected, relations between the two countries will continue to be under pressure. Seen from Beijing, Biden seems to be able to control this deterioration better while Trump seems much more chaotic, especially when he brandishes the threat of tariffs “.
A new escalation possible
The Republican candidate Donald Trump announced his intention to increase customs duties on Chinese imports to 60%. It was he who had already imposed duties of 25% on Chinese goods in 2018.
After this first wave of taxes, Chinese industries turned to new emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Thus, exports to the Vietnamthere Malaysiaor Mexico are experiencing much faster growth than those towards the United States. ” continues Nick Marro.
The country intends to continue to exploit these markets. In this way, Chinese industries established around the world ensure the continuity of shipments to the United States, while bypassing the customs system that could be set up for goods coming from China.
Possible reverse effects
But, the economist, based in Hong Kong, points out, the Chinese government believes that this measure would be difficult to implement. The US still needs China for a lot of goods, so this tariff would ultimately be a big blowback to the US economy. “.
On the other hand, companies expect an increase in orders if Donald Trump is re-elected. Americans may rush to stock up before tariffs kick in, Chinese companies brace for order boom in late 2024 and first quarter of 2025 ” comments Nick Marro.