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Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will have “serious consequences”, according to China.
But regardless of what will happen, China wins the tense situation.
– They will emerge victorious from this regardless, unfortunately, says Niklas Swanström, head of the Institute for Security and Development Policy.
A provocation and a crisis.
This is how several international media describe Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Niklas Swanström, who is director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy, is critical of this.
– Unfortunately, the international community has played into the Chinese’s hands. They have defined the narrative, that the Americans provoke.
He believes that this gives China two possibilities: to either act sensibly, back down from the “provocation” and appear responsible. Alternatively, to act militarily so they can claim self-defense.
And both paths are a lucky draw for Xi Jinping, says Swanström.
– They have played the game incredibly well, and very well. Xi Jinping will come out as a strong man or a strong diplomat, and in both cases the United States can be blamed.
Appearing reasonable both to one’s own population and internationally is a success.
– It may not convince people in Sweden or Americans, but in Burma, Congo or Serbia… there are many countries that are not the West where China’s actions will have an impact, that they appear reasonable and willing to compromise.
The outside world has woken up
Jojje Olsson is a freelance journalist and has lived in Taiwan since 2016. He is currently in Sweden, but follows the debate in Taiwan.
– From the authorities, the fact that a high-ranking politician seems to be coming and supporting Taiwan is of course viewed positively. They want to break their isolation that has occurred due to China’s economic threats.
According to him, the people of Taiwan seem to be taking the threat from China in stride, and are not reacting with the hysteria or fear that one might think from reading only Western media.
– In Taiwan, people are sober and used to the Chinese threats. For decades, there have been both verbal and military reactions, for example missile tests have been launched in the Taiwan Strait.
Jokes and memes are circulating online that paint the West’s image of Taiwan right now – with warships and an anxious population – which is compared to the Taiwanese’s own image of themselves. That is, drinking bubble tea and cuddling with pets.
– The outside world has woken up to a reality that Taiwan has lived with for decades.
Xi Jinping must act
Both Niklas Swanström and Jojje Olsson believe that if Pelosi lands on Taiwan’s soil, China will respond militarily – but not with an attack.
– It is almost inevitable that there won’t be any kind of military reaction to this, but then we are not talking about an attack or the like, but perhaps you will fly closer to Taiwan with large ships and aircraft, says Jojje Olsson.
The biggest risk with that would be that the “tests” result in something actually happening.
– There could be an accident or mistake that causes the situation to derail even further. It is clear that there is an element of concern, but the risk of an attack or sharp clash is much less than it is emphasized in the international media.
This autumn is the National People’s Congress – which forces Xi Jinping to act, says Jojje Olsson.
– He cannot afford to appear weak. He has to respond somehow, but he also cannot afford to risk stability.
Nikals Swanström believes that the visit will cause Taiwan to continue to receive increased pressure from China.
– China has taken two steps forward when it comes to the pressure on Taiwan, and they will not back down from that.