“They stole our industry and they want our protection.” Donald Trump’s harsh comment against the Taiwanese during his appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast went unnoticed by the general public. But it has not escaped the attention of tech executives. Tensions with the island which loyally stole the crown from the Americans in the field of semiconductors would cause turmoil in digital markets around the world. Just like the customs barriers that Donald Trump, re-elected for a second presidential term, plans to raise in many areas.
What should technology companies in Asia and Europe prepare for? As for Taiwan, it is unlikely that Washington will abandon this ally in the open. But a standoff begins. “Donald Trump will undoubtedly condition the maintenance of the military umbrella over Taiwan on a greater relocation of the production facilities of the semiconductor giant TSMC. Trading security more energetically in exchange for economic dividends,” points out Julien Nocetti , specialist in digital diplomacy from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
The re-election of Donald Trump also darkens the horizon of Chinese tech. The Republican is taking a hard line against the second world power, which is hot on the heels of the United States in a number of cutting-edge technologies (AI, robots, green mobility, etc.). It was he who blacklisted the giant Huawei, the pride of China, in 2019. Of course, Donald Trump is not the only American to wage this cold war with China. “His style will be more martial, more outrageous. But both Democrats and Republicans actually agree on the idea of an economic and technological decoupling between the two powers by 2040,” specifies Julien Nocetti.
During Joe Biden’s mandate, the White House drastically restricted the type of semiconductors that could be exported to China. Depriving the Middle Kingdom of the most sophisticated Nvidia chips that AI champions so badly need to develop their large language models. Donald Trump’s approach could also prove more prosaic than that of his predecessor. “The cornerstone of Trump’s foreign policy is trade deficits. It’s not so much a question of whether you’re an ally or an adversary. It’s simpler than that: you trade with the United States- United? You should not generate a trade surplus,” explains Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Customs wall in front of China
China, which for ten years has been working to build its digital sovereignty, is also better prepared to deal with American restrictions than during Donald Trump’s first term. This does not mean, however, that future measures will be painless. “Sectors other than those already targeted – telecoms, submarine cables, could be in the sights. Chinese fintech for example,” warns Julien Nocetti.
And if the United States can hardly further tighten the sanctions concerning semiconductors, “they can attack the intermediaries who help China to acquire certain specialized chips”, specifies Gilles Babinet, co-president of the National Council digital (CNnum). The planned increases in customs duties will finally have the effect of cutting off many Chinese entrepreneurs, particularly those specializing in innovative transport, from the lucrative American market.
This could also play tricks on Tesla, the company of the new “favorite” of the White House, Elon Musk. The value of the auto manufacturer jumped in the hours following the announcement of the results of the vote (+ 11%). But the impact of the Republican’s victory on the company is more uncertain than it seems. “Customs barriers will help Tesla protect or even increase its market share in the United States. But in any trade war, there is a risk of retaliation. This could cause Tesla to lose market share in China and Europe,” points out Andrea Tueni, head of market activities at Saxo Banque.
“Trump will help torpedo European regulations”
Donald Trump’s victory will also make waves in Europe. With the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA), Brussels had succeeded in passing ambitious digital regulation texts to fight against disinformation or the monopolistic risks posed by large platforms. With a tenant in the White House less concerned about Europe and advised by Elon Musk who detests these texts, the battle promises to be tough. “Trump will help American groups to torpedo the European regulations that target them,” predicts the Ifri expert. The former European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton is already drawing alarm bells about this.
If the debate around TikTok political influence is lively, it is becoming urgent to ask the question for American social networks that EU citizens use even more. “The United States will use large platforms as weapons. This has already started. With Meta announcing that its large Llama language model could be used for military purposes, with relay of MAGA ideology, warns Gilles Babinet. Europe must adopt a strategic vision of the geopolitics of platforms. They will spread disinformation, this has always been a pillar of the Trump mechanism.
Europeans specializing in defense technologies are best placed to take advantage of the new political configuration. Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to reduce American aid to Ukraine and disengage from NATO. Distanced by its ally, Europe has every interest in strengthening its own defense. “We must increase the EU defense budget and that of research to 3% of GDP each. Synchronize all of this at the European level. And let people like Mario Draghi take up their pilgrim’s staff again,” hopes Gilles Babinet. In addition to financing disruptive technologies, particularly those playing a key role in our military interests (AI, quantum), the startup association France Digitale is calling for “European preference in public procurement, in strategic areas such as innovation.”
Europe, the only export outlet for the Chinese?
Electric batteries, green hydrogen… Europeans specializing in green innovations will also see the geography of the sector change. With the Inflation Reduction Act and its generous subsidies, the United States had become an El Dorado for the sector. “Donald Trump will unravel everything that Joe Biden has put in place in the environment,” indicates Julien Nocetti. Will this benefit our local champions? Nothing is less certain. “If customs duties increase sharply, Europe will become the only export outlet for Chinese manufacturers of photovoltaic panels, wind turbines or even electrolysers… Everything will therefore depend on how Europe reacts to this “, underlines Jules Besnainou, director of Cleantech for Europe. And if Donald Trump further weakens the consensus around the fight against global warming, “this creates a global environment which penalizes all actors involved in the energy transition”, warns Vincent Charlet, director of the La Fabrique de l’Industrie ideas laboratory.
Across the Atlantic, digital companies, on the other hand, have little to worry about. The Nasdaq composite also reacted well to the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory. “The risk of harsh antitrust policies is less with Donald Trump than with Kamala Harris. The relaxation of regulations, particularly in artificial intelligence, is appealing to the sector,” explains Andrea Tueni of Saxo Bank.
While Elon Musk has advocated strong regulation of AI, his criticism appears to have been more motivated by his personal grievances with OpenAI. His concerns did not prevent him from setting up his own generative AI startup (xAI) and very quickly making the first tools similar to those of OpenAI available to the general public, such as a data generator. ‘pictures.
Donald Trump also promised during a meeting to “remove Biden’s Executive Order on AI”, a framework which did not impose very strong constraints on the sector. “AI is the most critical technology. The United States will do everything to strengthen its lead in it. And Donald Trump will undoubtedly be more attentive to the demands of companies in the sector in terms of energy infrastructure,” analyzes the co-president of the CNnum.
The Trump administration should also let go of the cryptocurrency industry. If the Republican had criticized him during his first term, he has since come very close, even promising to fire Gary Gensler, the president of the SEC who so annoys crypto startupers. American tech shows no signs of slowing down. A paradox considering the rise of protectionism in the world, points out Gilles Babinet: “Technology pushes more towards integration, we have never communicated so easily. Yet we are witnessing great fragmentation.”
.