Like every year, the numbers fall, and like every year they increase. According to the 2023 report from the International Energy Agency (IAE) dedicated to coal published this Friday, December 15, global coal consumption will break a new record in 2023. It will reach its peak, before, perhaps, initiating an overall decline “from 2024”. These new data, which hide large disparities, are revealed two days after the close of the 28th UN Climate Conference in Dubai, which called for a gradual abandonment of fossil energy sources, of which coal is a part, to fight against global warming.
This last year, 8,536 million tonnes (Mt) of coal went up in smoke across the four corners of the globe. A figure never seen before in history, which beats last year’s 8,415 tonnes by 1.4%. If this increase is notable, it is in reality “marginal”, notes the IEA in its report. And above all, it hides significant disparities according to geographical areas.
Asia continues to rely on coal
Thus, two countries in particular continue to consume much more coal: China and India, which together represent exactly two thirds of global consumption. China far ahead, since it alone represents half of global demand. According to the IEA report, this year, Chinese consumption will have jumped by 220 million tonnes (+ 4.9%) compared to 2022, that of India will have increased by 98 million tonnes (+ 8 %). Indonesia also continues to be greedy for coal: it consumed an additional 23 million tonnes this year, or 11% more than last year.
On the other hand, consumption slowed down sharply in Europe (decrease of 107 million tonnes, -23%), and in the United States (decrease of 95 million tonnes, -21%), mainly due to global commitments to fight against climate change. And consequently, from the change in power plants which are gradually abandoning coal to save the climate and from the weakness of industrial activity.
China, a decisive player in the exit from coal
“With growth in India and ASEAN offsetting declines in the European Union and the United States, China remains the decisive player in setting the trend in global coal demand,” emphasizes l International Energy Agency.
From next year, “growth in renewable energies greater than overall growth in electricity demand should put global coal consumption on a downward trajectory,” the agency nevertheless predicts. A conclusion that is nevertheless uncertain, since actual coal consumption has on several occasions proven to be higher than the agency’s forecasts. The IEA also admits its difficulty in issuing forecasts for Russia, the world’s fourth largest consumer of coal, due to the war in Ukraine.