In all the scenarios constructed by Buckingham Palace, the fact that the Queen of England breathed her last in Scotland was the most plausible hypothesis, so much did she like to spend time in her damp castles, in the north of her Kingdom. At least three months in the summer at Balmoral, near Aberdeen, and more and more often at his Holyrood Palace in Edinburgh.
This love, the Scots returned it well: 70% of them said they cherished their sovereign. In 2014, during the independence referendum, Scottish nationalists even predicted that Elizabeth would remain “Queen of Scots”, regardless of the result. In the end, the “no” to independence won by 55%, with a little royal boost. In accordance with custom, the monarch had not clearly expressed her position, but she had asked voters to “think carefully about the future” before slipping their ballot into the ballot box…
A discreet influence, above partisan controversies, essential for the cohesion of the kingdom. “Elizabeth II understood the intricacies of the Union better than anyone, explains historian Catherine Haddon. She knew that she was not only a queen, but the sovereign of four very different countries.”
“The question of trust in Charles will arise”
Charles III did not inherit his mother’s reputation, at least outside of England. Half of Scots claim to have a negative opinion of the new king and even the Welsh, of whom he was Duke of Cornwall, are 40% who do not like him. “The question of trust in Charles will arise in times of crisis, underlines Catherine Haddon. Public opinion knew that the queen would never seek political gains. With Charles, that remains to be seen …” Because as a prince, the new monarch regularly slipped, expressing his opinions in public.
He will have to force himself to be neutral to prevent the divisions from widening on the other side of the Channel. The Scottish government plans to hold a new independence referendum in autumn 2023 and tensions are at their highest in Northern Ireland. Since Brexit, the “Northern Irish protocol” has established a special status for this territory, which keeps a foothold in the European common market in exchange for customs checks with the rest of the United Kingdom. For the British, this amounts to laying down a border within the United Kingdom itself. “The tensions arising from Brexit have weakened the unity of the country and the passage of Boris Johnson has not helped, notes Claire Breniaux, researcher in contemporary British civilization at the University of Franche-Comté. In Scotland, the Prime Minister has been particularly criticized, it fueled demands for independence.”
A period of uncertainty, even turbulence, is therefore beginning. And this, especially since Buckingham Palace is not the only place of power to have to fill a void, since the inexperienced Liz Truss replaces Boris Johnson at 10 Downing Street. Appointed two days before the queen’s death, the former foreign minister will have to manage the burning issues of Scotland and Northern Ireland. “Liz Truss and Charles III, two leaders enthroned a few days apart, raise strong questions, believes Claire Breniaux. They will be decisive for the cohesion of the United Kingdom.”
Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon again warned this summer that Scotland, even if it became independent, would still remain under the umbrella of the British monarchy. Not sure it would console Charles III to be the first sovereign to break up a marriage dating back to 1707.