This is an unprecedented eviction in the history of the United States. Republican Kevin McCarthy became, on Tuesday, October 3, the first President of the House of Representatives to be impeached. To understand such an outcome, we have to go back to September 30. That day, after three long weeks of debate devoted to the budgetary text, the elected representatives of Congress managed to find an agreement, narrowly avoiding the much feared “shutdown”, the institutional blockage which leads to the freezing of financing for all public services. To protect himself from such a blockage, Kevin McCarthy was then forced to negotiate with the Democratic deputies, in the minority, the extension of the budget for forty-five days. Enough to arouse the ire of part of his camp, which defends a drastic reduction in spending, first and foremost that devoted to financing aid to Ukraine promised by Joe Biden.
Trumpist elected official Matt Gaetz files a motion of censure to dismiss Kevin McCarthy. Seven of his Republican colleagues and 206 Democratic deputies voted for, thus causing the fall of the “speaker” and at the same time plunging the United States into an institutional crisis. What does such a situation mean? What repercussions could it have on the political landscape one year before the presidential election? Who will succeed Kevin McCarthy? Historian specializing in American domestic politics, and more specifically Republicans (Reagan, 2015, Perrin), Françoise Coste believes that this thunderclap is “blessed bread for Putin”.
L’Express: How do you assess the seriousness of what happened in Congress on Tuesday October 3?
Françoise Coste: For the Republican Party, it is a continuation of decline. He has fallen into a nihilistic spiral and can no longer govern or reach agreement. This is the first time that a majority group has ousted its own president. This means that party discipline has completely broken down, which is serious for Republicans one year before the supreme election. If the party were to win the presidential election, which Congress would the Republican president-elect govern with? The most worrying thing is that the divisions relate more to personal quarrels than to ideas: this proves that an ideological void predominates within the party. An ideological void which could cause him to lose credibility, particularly in his ability to lead the country. It remains to be seen to what extent the situation can destabilize the United States. In reality, it depends on whether we can find a solution to replace McCarthy. Will they elect a new speaker? No scenario can be excluded. Can more or less moderate Republicans switch to the Democratic side? Knowing that the two parliamentary groups are almost identical in size…
Does the ousting of Kevin McCarthy reshuffle the presidential cards?
Donald Trump’s hold on the party is so strong, and his lead in the primaries, so great, that it is almost unthinkable that he will not win the primaries. And this, even if he gets into legal trouble. His opponents fail to exist politically.
By comparison, the Democrats seem much less divided…
That’s what’s fascinating. During the first two years of the Biden presidency, Democrats had a majority in the House of Representatives of just four votes, exactly like Republicans have today. Democrats have managed to pass many ambitious and expensive laws. On Covid, vaccines, the green transition, the recovery plan, infrastructure… All this was done thanks to Nancy Pelosi, who was a good speaker at the head of a well-organized parliamentary group. It’s the exact opposite of the Republicans. They have no party discipline, and no concern for the coherence and continuity of the State. The Republican Party is today a headless party, since it cannot manage the House, and a sleepwalking party, to the extent that it will blindly offer itself again to Trump.
However, unlike the Democrats, the Republicans seem to agree on the choice of their candidate, Donald Trump…
No candidate in the Republican primaries is alarmed by the situation within the party. Nobody talks about what’s happening in Congress. This is both an oddity and a complete denial. Because if a Republican gets to the White House, he will be forced to work with Congress.
Who are the contenders to succeed McCarthy?
There are several candidates. Two have officially entered the race: Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan and Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalise. Concerning the leader of the rebels, Matt Gaetz, he is so hated within the parliamentary group that he will never have a majority. Some say Republicans will end up missing McCarthy. But it still took him 15 rounds of voting to be elected speaker. In reality the only thing all these people have in common is Trump. And, apart from Trump, there is currently no personality on whom Republicans can agree. This is why, in the American press, some are calling to vote for a Democratic speaker. But the election of a president from a minority parliamentary group (the Democrats) would be unheard of.
What would happen in the event of shutdown ?
If a shutdown was decreed, aid to Ukraine would not be renewed after forty-five days, which would be serious for the international image of the United States, which is committed in the eyes of the rest of the world and to Ukraine. Above all, it would be holy bread for Putin. The circus around shutdown avoided on Sunday and the speaker’s crisis are linked to a radical minority in the party which is “super-Trumpian” and pro-Putin. The Russian leader is certainly delighted. The White House and the Pentagon are aware of the stakes, and know that it is unthinkable to abandon Ukraine. They will therefore do as much lobbying as possible to continue aid to Ukraine. It remains to be seen who they will negotiate with.
What strategy is Biden adopting in the face of this threat of paralysis to position himself as guardian of the institutions?
It depends on what is happening among the Republicans. The other difficulty is that, unlike France or Italy, the United States does not provide that a president can dissolve the Chamber of Deputies in the event of a crisis or institutional blockage. Dissolution does not exist in the US Constitution. This is why we arrive at this blocking situation which makes us dizzy.