Censorship of Bayrou: a date already announced, who will vote for it?

François Bayrou finally formed his government. This is far from unanimous and is already threatened with censorship.

The Bayrou government is in place, but until when? For the Rebels, the answer is clear: it will be censorship. Jean-Luc Mélenchon already assured, before the formation of the ministerial team, that François Bayrou “will not pass[it] not winter”, in an interview given to Parisian. A statement echoed by other LFI elected officials, such as Éric Coquerel and Aurélie Trouvé.

It must be said that the oppositions are particularly unhappy with this government. On the left, François Bayrou is criticized for having accommodated the demands of the National Rally, by preferring to appoint Gérald Darmanin to Justice rather than Xavier Bertrand.

The president of the Hauts-de-France region himself wrote a message on Le Pen.” An assertion denied by the Prime Minister, who refuted any “influence” of the RN, at the microphone of BFMTV.

However, the RN is not delighted with this government either. On Marine Le Pen denounced “a manifest absence of legitimacy and a majority that cannot be found”, in the same way as “the previous government”. Jordan Bardella for his part deplored a “coalition of failure”, and Eric Ciotticlose to the RN, compared the new ministers to “sleepwalkers of chaos [qui] are socialists, historical Macronists and converts from LR”. The far right could vote for censorship if it disagrees too much with the government.

Censorship on January 16? Voting intentions already known

A threat brandished as soon as the government announced. LFI announced it: if the Prime Minister does not ask for the confidence of the deputies at the end of his general policy speech, on January 14, “we will table a motion of censure, certainly on January 16, after his policy speech general”, announced Aurélie Trouvé, LFI deputy, at the microphone of franceinfo this December 24.

A censorship which will be voted for by the LFI elected officials, and probably by the rest of the New Popular Front. If its members were not all definitive on the vote of censure, they did not hide their great disappointment after the formation of the government. Olivier Faure described it as “provocation” and assured that “none of the conditions for possible non-censorship were respected”. No promise of censorship therefore, but nothing reassuring for the Bayrou government. Same thing with the ecologists and the communists.

The far right could therefore also vote on a motion of censure, including tabled by the Insoumis. It wouldn’t be the first time. The RN still assured that it would be the actions of ministers, and not their names, which would tip the scales towards censorship. Between them, the NFP and the RN represent 316 deputies, more than the 289 needed to pass a motion of censure.

However, the Prime Minister said he was “convinced” that the government will be “not censored” during his interview on BFM TV.

He will be able to count on the support of LR in particular. Because on the side of the group called “Republican Right”, there is nothing to suggest that deputies labeled “DR” could participate in censorship. Laurent Wauquiez, their boss, assured that their “duty is to have as their only reasoning what is the interest of the country in the current political situation” and informed that his deputies will decide on their votes “text by text”.

If the motion of censure does not pass after the general policy speech, the opposition could have the opportunity to vote on another one, during the examination of the budget. Indeed, François Bayrou assured that he preferred to pass the budget by 49.3 rather than by ordinance, as provided for in the Constitution, if the Assembly failed to reach an agreement. However, who says 49.3, says filing of a motion of censure.