Bernard Cazeneuve still seems able to resist a motion of censure in the Assembly, if he is appointed Prime Minister. From this point of view, he is better placed than Xavier Bertrand.
Is Bernard Cazeneuve the best recourse for Emmanuel Macron ? On Monday, September 2, the President of the Republic did indeed discuss with him the possibility of his nomination. Since then, it has been a matter of great reflection. The Head of State is consulting and trying to find out to what extent he could be supported in the National Assembly. He is also evaluating the good and bad aspects of choosing as Prime Minister a close friend – with whom he had even become friends before his break with Hollandism – who nevertheless makes political demands that he refused to accept just a few days ago.
Bernard Cazeneuve intends to set his conditions to the President of the Republic. If he is appointed, he intends to implement “a real, credible left-wing policy” as well as a “real cohabitation with Emmanuel Macron”, he made known via a close friend to Le Parisien. According to the newspaper’s information, the real problem lies, on a programmatic level, in Bernard Cazeneuve’s desire to call into question the pension reform. A real casus belli, a sacrifice that the president is not really ready to make as long as he has other options. Furthermore, Bernard Cazeneuve would like to have free rein in the choice of his ministers, particularly for Bercy and for Foreign Affairs. According to Le Monde, these demands would not suit Emmanuel Macron.
Another considerable obstacle faces Bernard Cazeneuve in the prospect of a nomination: the New Popular Front has remained united so far, the PS refuses to participate in a Cazeneuve government and has even voted in the political bureau that a vote of censure is possible.
Despite all the shadows on the horizon, the former Prime Minister remains a “serious option” according to the Elysée. Why? Because all the lines can move. Bernard Cazeneuve is certainly poorly perceived by the NFP, but he can still obtain the support of the PS deputies if he presents a roadmap that suits the socialists. He can also convince the right and the center bloc. The Elysée, the centrist deputies and some of the LR elected officials are sensitive to his fierce opposition to LFI. He has never hidden his aversion to Jean-Luc Mélenchon and had deplored the presence of La France insoumise in the New Popular Front.
If we do the precise calculations: Bernard Cazeneuve can resist a motion of censure, even if it is voted by the RN groups, the Ciottists, and the left-wing deputies except those of the PS. For that to happen, all the other deputies would have to give him their support. This would imply both a balancing programmatic line on the part of Bernard Cazeneuve, but also an unprecedented rapprochement between the PS and LR, with a view to getting out of the impasse. A ridge path, but one that exists. This path does not exist for the other political option on the table, the one leading to the LR Xavier Bertrand. The latter, appointed to Matignon, would be the subject of a vote of censure, according to what some and others say, at this stage, of the National Rally and the New Popular Front: he therefore cannot govern. It is therefore very clear: arithmetically, Bernard Cazeneuve is clearly better placed than Xavier Bertrand to be appointed Prime Minister.