The Carolina Hurricanes, represented by four Finnish players, drifted into the heart of the hurricane in a surprising way last week. For the first time in years, the team that was raised as a championship candidate lost five matches in a row – if only four of them after the actual game time.
The side slide by the Hurricanes is just one stage of a long regular season marathon, but it still raises questions from a broader perspective.
There is still no doubt that Carolina is not a quality NHL team. It plays fast and spectacular vertical hockey, with which it grinds many teams under their feet. When it comes to the Corsi statistic that measures puck control through shots, scoring opportunities, or just about any other statistic, Carolina is among the league’s elite.
The Hurricanes have taken the third most shots and allowed the opponent the second fewest shots. The group dominated the flow of the game on most nights.
At the same time, however, smoldering in the background.
So far, the team has not found functional and effective chain compositions in practice at all. Control of the game is often not concreted into goals. While advanced stats flatter the team, the most important stat doesn’t: Carolina has scored 2.68 hits per game, fourth fewest in the entire league.
The team’s shooting percentage (6.94) on five-on-five is the weakest in the league. When this is combined with the dominance game that collapsed from last season, scoring has become a drag and winning has become difficult.
– They haven’t gotten on top of their game in the best way, and the superiority game is now not giving oxygen to the rest of the game. Last year they had a great dominance, but now it fell apart when the coach went to take over Teuvo Teräväinen away from number one dominance. The pain of superiority is also reflected in the five-on-five game, Urheilu’s expert Ismo Lehkonen says.
In the videos below, see three direct attack examples of how Carolina starts from its own end in a very straightforward and fast vertical attack. Carolina creates a lot of scoring chances with direct attacks, but doesn’t score that many goals.
Below are Lehkonen’s three picks on the reasons for Carolina’s downtrend.
1. Assembly problems
Carolina is still a good team, but is it better in terms of material than, say, last season? Hardly. At least not without the sick Teräväi and Max Pacioretty.
The center forward who left for New York Vincent Trocheck and moved to Nashville Nino Niederreiter scored 45 goals and nearly 100 points.
Carolina has not been able to fill this gap.
Sebastian Ahon, Andrei Svetshnikov and by Martin Necas after Carolina’s best forward (Seth Jarvis and Jordan Martinook) is recorded from 22 matches with powers of 4+5. Even among these, Martinook is purely a four-chain crusher. Carolina is operating with very limited material right now, and there is no promise of anything better – Pacioretty, for example, will probably not return to real action until February.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi has taken Trocheck’s place as the second center, but five (2+3) power points is not what is expected from the second center forward of a championship candidate enjoying a salary of almost five million. In the case of Carolina, a lot boils down to the second center.
– They have to solve the center situation somehow. I think there are nine centers in their team. Aho is his own chapter, but how they build the next two chains is a big thing. Kotkaniemi should fill Trocheck’s boots, but so far he has not done so, Lehkonen’s line.
– Carolina has to think about whether they will drive Kotkaniemi to it all season or whether they will move Martin Necas to the center.
Many have wondered why Carolina hasn’t moved Necas to center. Teräväinen, Pacioretty and Ondrej Kasen due to injuries, Carolina has a shortage of wing forwards. At this point, only Svetshnikov and Paul Stastny.
The club has counted a lot on young people.
– They still have an insane construction site there. There are quite good double harnesses out there, but not really functional chain combinations. They have such a way of playing that you have to find four strong cylinders. Coaching certainly wants answers to this quickly.
The idea of strengthening the team through player trading makes Lehko laugh.
– As a coach, would I dare to go to the office and scratch the door, because I needed one more center. There are nine centers in the team. Do I still need a tenth, Lehkonen laughs.
Fun in itself, but Carolina might really need that 10th.
2. The cough of the superiority game
The power play problems are one question mark for Carolina. Last season’s superiority, which operated at 22 percent power, has congealed to only 17 percent in the season that has started. In this respect, the situation is very similar to five against five. Carolina has created more scoring chances than any other team, but the shooting accuracy is the worst in the league.
Carolina has scored 22 goals while expecting 14 hits, and Boston is at the other end of the list with slightly less, expecting 23 hits.
– The superiority game stopped on the day when the head coach Rod Brind’Amour moved Teräväinen out of the first line-up and was to get Teuvo the second arm in shape, says Lehkonen.
– Aho and Teräväinen are able to play together for superiority even with their eyes closed and now it was broken. Teuvo has been Koutsi’s credit guy for years, and then let’s do this.
The veteran of more than 1,200 matches, who moved from San Jose to become the club’s number one defender, has also brought his own spice and challenge to the superiority game Brent Burns. Burns is a top class player, but the team play with the other stars has not clicked yet.
Burns’ straightforward playing style and sensitive trigger finger have changed the dynamics of the power game.
– Tony DeAngelo left for Philadelphia and was replaced by Burns, but the exchange has not gone as smoothly as expected. Burns has been a little too straight forward and there are now four kits a bit like from the same mold.
3. Goalkeeper game
Depending on the perspective, Carolina’s water glass can be said to be either half full or half empty. It is full to the extent that Carolina creates a lot of scoring opportunities and often takes away the flow of the game. You could think of it as half-empty in terms of scoring power and depth of material.
For example, in Saturday’s top game, Boston gave Carolina a hand, so to speak, even though the game was even numerically.
– It’s Carolina’s luck that they don’t have Tampa’s way of playing. This is quite a stripped-down game, that the number one goes up without pakki-pakki passes. If they didn’t have such a simple way of playing, they’d be even more in the alley.
Sebastian Aho 22. 9+14=23
Teuvo Teräväinen 14. 0+7=7
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 22. 2+3=5
Antti Raanta 8th match, 4 wins. Suppression percentage: 90.1. Average goals conceded: 2.47.
The goalkeeper department also doubts Lehko.
– There is a number one and two player who is constantly sick and now a Russian is playing there Pyotr Koshetkovwho doesn’t even speak English. Antti Raannan in this case, we are certainly living in very decisive times in terms of his NHL career. He hasn’t been at his best and the statistics are a bit weak. The Russian is driving by.
Should Carolina be worried?
– In a certain way it is, they themselves are worried when a crisis meeting and other things have been held there. Now you can really go through a more difficult time with a place in the playoffs. Teuvo will be on the sidelines for a while and Pacioretty won’t get help until the very end of the regular season, Lehkonen says.
– They have a lot to figure out and if we are thinking about champion candidates, Carolina is not part of that group. Not even close.