This is one of the main battlegrounds between Iran and Saudi Arabia: Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war for almost nine years. Riyadh, at the head of a military coalition, supports the government. Tehran, for its part, is arming the Houthi rebels who have taken control of a significant part of the territory, including the capital Sana’a. So what can be the consequences for Yemen of the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement announced ten days ago?
THE “ Arab Spring and the fall of President Ali Abdallah Saleh have awakened the Yemeni divisions, which are not always healed. In 2011, the central power was already facing separatist desires in the south and a rebellion in the province of Sa’ada, in the north of the country. Starting in the summer of 2014, the Houthi rebels launched an offensive against the new government. They who until then were concentrated near the border with Saudi Arabia, managed to conquer large parts of the territory: most of the coastline on the Red Sea and the capital Sana’a from 2015.
Saudi Arabia then established an international coalition to support the Yemeni government in the face of a rebellion led by a Shiite group and supported by Iran. The coalition is engaged militarily in Yemen, but eight years of combat have not allowed it to repel its enemies: today, more than 60% of the Yemeni population lives in areas controlled by this movement.
Truce de facto
As Ramadan approached last year, the two sides reached a truce: it lasted six months. Officially, it expired in october : the belligerents did not agree to extend it. But in fact, this truce continues: the clashes have not resumed. ‘All parties want a truce but the Houthis did not want to pay the political price to extend it’ says Abdul-Ghani Al Iryani, a researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, a Yemeni think tank.“Nevertheless, they respect the truce in most cases. There are some violations, especially in the city of Taiz. But generally speaking, there is very little fighting in the rest of the country. continues the Yemeni political scientist.
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And the dialogue is not broken: negotiations are still underway between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, under the aegis of Oman, a discreet mediator of regional crises. For a year, Saudi Arabia has shown a change in attitude: Yemen has become a quagmire for the kingdom from which it wishes to disengage. “There is a temptation for the Saudis to withdraw in a somewhat unilateral way, even if it means leaving the government recognized by the international community and qualified as the legitimate government of Yemen a little on the floor” says Laurent Bonnefoy, CNRS researcher assigned to the CERI and author of “Yemen, from happy Arabia to war”.
Prisoner exchange
The Iranian-Saudi agreement announced in Beijing on March 10 provides a breath of optimism for Yemen. Reporting on the situation in the country to the Security Council, the United Nations special envoy for Yemen last week spoke of new momentum. The new regional context has made it possible “a radical change in the scope and depth of the discussions” judged Hans Grundberg who called on the Yemeni government and the Houthis “to seize opportunities” created by this merger.
First notable development: on Monday, the two parties agreed on an exchange of prisoners. More than 880 detainees should be released and allowed to return to their camp: 181 from the government camp and its allies and 706 rebels. The exchange should take place in three weeks. But these negotiations were the seventh of their kind and aimed to allow the application of an agreement already signed at the end of 2018. While waiting to see if this agreement will be well respected, it is difficult to see in this announcement an effect of the rapprochement of the two great regional rivals.
” The unconditional support of the past is over »
The Iranian-Saudi agreement is also seen with skepticism, even concern, on the part of Yemeni actors. “There is reason to recognize the victory of the Houthis”believes Laurent Bonnefoy. “And that worries some Yemenis because the Houthis have an attitude that is harmful to society: they ostracize Yemen from the international community, they develop an extremely conservative policy domestically, hostile to human rights, to women’s rights. Some Yemenis reject it, even if we must recognize that there is another segment of society that ideologically supports this approach carried by the Houthis. »
The internationally recognized government in exile in Riyadh also fears being abandoned by its Saudi ally. Saudi Arabia has already engaged in negotiations with the Houthis without him. But the rebel group also loses significant support. ‘The Houthis were as surprised by the Iran-Saudi deal as all of us and this will force them to re-evaluate their negotiation strategy’Judge Abdul-Ghani Al Iryani.“They are in a more difficult position; before, they had full confidence in the Iranian support but the unconditional support of the past is over. They will have to respect limits: which is acceptable so as not to derail relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. »
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But the loss is probably more significant for the Yemeni government. “In reality, the chain of command between the Houthis and Iran is not clearly established” notes Laurent Bonnefoy. “It is understood that there is logistical support, arms deliveries. But at the same time, there is a fairly clear autonomy of the Houthis. They know that time is on their side, they also know that Saudi Arabia wants to get out of it. So in reality, the Houthis made very few concessions” indicates the CNRS researcher.
The role of the United Arab Emirates
The future of Yemen also depends on other actors. The internationally recognized government also faces an independence rebellion in the south of the country: the Southern Transitional Council. By taking control of Aden, the big city in the south of the country, he forced the government into exile in Saudi Arabia. And this Southern Transitional Council is supported by the United Arab Emirates. Although part of the military coalition led by Saudi Arabia, the country also plays its own part.
Abu Dhabi has also resumed dialogue with the Islamic Republic. Unlike Saudi Arabia, the Emirates did not break diplomatic relations with Iran, but for six years they no longer had an ambassador in Tehran. Last August, the two countries announced the dismissal of diplomats. But in Yemen, the two support opposing camps. “The Emirates could find accommodations with the Houthis on the territorial level: tell the Houthis north, the south to our allies”believes Laurent Bonnefoy. But tensions between the two parties exist. “And if they do not express themselves directly on the military level, it is still an issue that must be kept in mind” warns the researcher. Yemen remains a playground for regional powers. Any peace process involves taking into account the interests of the various actors and cannot be limited to discussions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
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