Is a weak party dangerous? A regular visitor to Emmanuel Macron thinks so. This shadow advisor recently expressed concern to the Head of State about the modest voting intentions of the Republicans in the European elections. The party oscillates between 7% and 8% of the votes and is not guaranteed to exceed the fateful bar of 5%, threshold below which a list sends elected officials to Brussels. “If I am an LR deputy, I will derail the train and censor the government before the vote,” he told the President of the Republic. “We must not give them an excuse to do so.”
This pretext is there. At 5.5% of GDP, the slippage in the public deficit in 2023 places the government in a corner. Here he is accused of budgetary insincerity and cover-up of accounts. The right denounces the “downgrading” of a country threatened by a Greek scenario and should launch a commission of inquiry into the state of our public finances. The boss of LR deputies Olivier Marleix boycotted a “working meeting” in Bercy bringing together the group presidents of the two chambers and parliamentarians specializing in budgetary issues. The strategy is transparent: denounce the government’s negligence and “let it sort itself out”, summarizes an LR executive. There is no question of being accountable for the emergency savings decided at the top of the State.
“The hypothesis is on the table”
Between the executive and LR, the point of no return has been reached. The tumultuous partnership born in the aftermath of the legislative elections has lived on. Too many low blows, like during the examination of the immigration law. Too much pettiness, like the debauchery of Rachida Dati. “Eric Ciotti has become radicalized,” notes an LR executive. And then, the Europeans are approaching. The right is at stake for its survival, it must separate itself from power to find political oxygen. The budgetary crisis offers him a window of opportunity. Eric Ciotti and Olivier Marleix mock the failure of Emmanuel Macron – “the swan song of the Mozart of finance” and of his Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire. Who gives it back to them. At a Renaissance group meeting, the Bercy tenant mocked the lack of support from the LR group for pension reform and the “127 billion euros in additional spending” proposed by the right in the 2024 budget. To the point that a pillar of the government questions the real objective of these repeated barbs from the boss of Bercy against his former LR friends.
The right on the offensive, to the point of censorship? “The hypothesis is on the table”, launched this Tuesday March 26 Eric Ciotti on BFMTV about the 2025 finance bill, after a first warning this weekend in The echoes. The boss of LR must meet soon with the president of the Liot group in the National Assembly, Bertrand Pancher, an essential partner to obtain the 58 signatures necessary to submit any motion. The executive monitors the heir of the UMP like milk on fire.
An LR deputy was contacted by Matignon, keen to understand this elusive group. Several ministers from the right, such as Gérald Darmanin, warn against the presentation of an amending finance bill, an ideal opportunity to overthrow the government. Please do not accede to the request of around twenty LR deputies, who sent this grievance by mail to Gabriel Attal, in the name of respecting the rights of Parliament.
“They never bring us down when they can”
Motion of censure. Here is the Arlesian of the five-year term again. A threat often mentioned, never carried out. Like the child who cried wolf, the refrain tires certain majority executives. LR deputies? A disunited and weak-willed group, very fragile in the event of new legislative elections. “It would be bloody for them,” smiles a Renaissance leader. “They never bring us down when they can, they provide support without participation,” laughs one of Emmanuel Macron’s interlocutors. Unconscious or weak. Heads I win, tails you lose.
Others have learned to be wary of this unpredictable collective. Like this minister, who carefully read the survey commissioned by LR and revealed by The Obs in the event of early elections. The National Rally would come out on top, with LR saving the furniture. “This poll can potentially bury dissolution more than censorship. Censorship is LR’s absolute weapon, what would be their gain in not using it? If a pretext is there…”
The right faces a strategic dilemma here, the result of ambiguity. LR seeks to differentiate itself from a power from which it intends to recover part of the voters. During the meeting to launch the European campaign, Eric Ciotti launched an appeal on March 23 to “right-wing French people” tempted by the “sirens of macronism”. “Come back!” he urged. “Do Macron’s right-wing voters want the government to fall? It’s not an easy calculation,” concedes a close friend of Nice. Cajoling them or rushing them to get them to come back to the fold: the right has not yet decided on a strategy.
The right distance
LR struggles to find the right distance to observe towards a power considered “right-wing” by so many French people. As when its European leaders François-Xavier Bellamy and Céline Imart claim not to have voted for Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen in 2017 or 2022, an admission contradictory to the flirting of right-wing Macronist voters.
LR has no shortage of dilemmas. Internally, several voices are questioning the political advisability of overthrowing the government on a budgetary issue. The right is certainly eyeing a liberal electorate sensitive to the deterioration of public finances, but most of its deputies come from rural and working-class constituencies. This sociological contradiction fuels doubts. “If Ciotti and Marleix table a motion of censure, I will sign it and vote for it, assures Belfort MP Ian Boucard. But it is less concerning than pensions. Nobody spoke to me about the State accounts this week -end.” “In the constituencies, this does not give us a vote in the event of dissolution,” adds a colleague. On the art of censorship.
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