Some 21 of the 30 million Venezuelans have been casting their ballots since 6 a.m. (local time) this Sunday, July 28, to elect their new president in a tense context.Until Victory Always“, promises the government; “until the end”, swears the opposition. Both camps are convinced of winning this election opposing the incumbent Nicolás Maduro, who has spoken of a possible “bloodbath”, to the candidate of “change” Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who promises a democratic renewal so long awaited by the country.
The fight promises to be particularly close. Although ten candidates are in the running, the election is actually a duel between Nicolás Maduro, 61 years old and already 2 mandates behind him, against the discreet diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, 74 years old. The polls give the opposition a clear lead. Based on other figures, the regime claims to be confident of its victory. Most pollsters estimate that Nicolás Maduro will not exceed 30%, and put the opposition at between 50 and 70%.
The country’s democratic future at stake
For opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, the democratic future of the country is at stake in this election, which “will undoubtedly be the most important democratic expression of the people in recent years,” he said on Saturday, July 27, inviting “citizens to go to their polling stations at the end of the day and see the clarity of the results obtained.” According to the NGO Human Rights Watch, “although it is unlikely that the elections will be free or fair,” they are indeed for Venezuelans “the best chance in more than a decade to choose their own government.”
Many still fear that the current president, often described as a “dictator” by the opposition, will try to distort the game this Sunday. Because Nicolás Maduro does not seem ready to give up his place: heir to Hugo Chavez, former president of socialist inspiration from 1999 until his death in 2013, he relies on the army and police harassment of the opposition, and regularly promises that he will not give up power, predicting chaos without him. “The future of Venezuela for the next 50 years will be decided on July 28, between a Venezuela of peace or violence. Peace or war,” he judged. These words “frightened” Brazilian President Lula, for whom “Maduro must learn that when you win, you stay (in power). When you lose, you leave.”
An opportunity to revive the economy?
The oil country, long one of the richest in Latin America, is bled dry, mired in an unprecedented economic crisis. GDP has shrunk by 80% in ten years, with hyperinflation forcing the authorities to partially dollarize the economy. As a result of mismanagement and corruption, oil production has collapsed, falling from more than three million barrels/day to just under one million. Seven million Venezuelans – a quarter of the population – have fled the country. Most of those who have remained live in poverty, with health and education systems in a state of complete disrepair.
In 2018, the United States had already tightened its sanctions in an attempt to oust Nicolás Maduro after his contested re-election, which led to protests that were severely repressed. During this election, the United States tried to force the government to hold “democratic and competitive” elections. This did not prevent the Maduro government from declaring María Corina Machado, the leader of the opposition who was immediately replaced by Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, ineligible and from banning the entry of observers invited by the opposition to monitor the vote.
At the same time, the White House, eager to revive Venezuelan production in a context of tension over crude oil with the Ukrainian and Middle East crises, has opened the door with operating permits for foreign oil companies.