The German legislative elections take place this Sunday, February 23 and AFD, the far -right party, is second in the polls just behind the traditional right. Does it have a chance to govern or be part of a majority?
The German extreme right could reach a historic score during the legislative elections scheduled for Sunday, February 23 on the other side of the Rhine. All polls agree to give the alternative party for Germany (AFD) in second position with 20% of the voting intentions on average. The party has never been so high since its creation in 2013. Only the traditional right of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) manages to stay in front of the extreme right with a dozen points ahead in the opinion surveys.
These two political forces, which according to polls, are able to bring together half of the votes and therefore more or less half of the seats in the Bundestag, can they associate to form the next parliamentary majority and have a chancellor of their ranks? The answer is no, according to Paul Maurice, secretary general of the Franco-German Relations Studies Committee (CERFA) at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “Germany works with a coalition system, but no German political party wishes to work or compromise with the extreme right. There is a real wall,” insists the specialist with Linternate. A historical “health cord” that has existed since the post-secret world war.
The extreme right wants to “destabilize” the right
This health cordon seemed to be weakening during the campaign with common parliamentary votes between the CDU and AFD on the migratory issue, central during the debates of the German legislative elections. “This policy has shaken the German political class because it is the first time that a party has agreed to vote with the extreme right,” explains Paul Maurice who stresses however that “the right has not made a movement towards the ‘extreme right “. “The extreme right voted a text proposed by the right which was certainly hard, but which was not suitable for its line, in order to destabilize the German political system”, analyzes the specialist member of IFRI.
“The AFD passes Friedrich Merz for a dangerous fascist with center-left forces.”
The president and candidate for the German Chancellery of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, also said “very clearly that there will never be cooperation between his party and the extreme right” during the debate between the candidates of Four main German parties on Sunday, February 16. A way to cut out doubts about a possible coalition of the rights insinuated by the AFD strategy. “The extreme right knows that no party wishes to work with her, so she tries to destabilize them by playing on the fears of voters. With this vote, AFD passes Friedrich Merz for a dangerous fascist with the Center forces -LEFT”. And when the boss of the CDU says he wants to work with the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) on the migratory issue, she presents it as a policy “compatible with the center-left in the eyes of conservative voters”, unfolds Paul Maurice.
The CDU has always closed the door to a coalition with AFD and its latest positions leaning up to a more conservative right does not change anything. According to the secretary general of CERFA, these measures which related in particular to migration policy were for Friedrich Merz “a way to get back to the center of the political game at the end of the campaign” and “take control on the theme predilection of the extreme right “. These positions are also a reaction to the demand of voters to seize the migratory issue after fear and anger aroused by the serial attacks of last months.
A possible coalition between the right and the left?
If a coalition with the extreme right is unthinkable, which parties could form the parliamentary majority? “A large coalition between the CDU and the SPD, the type of coalition in place during the Chancellery of Angela Merkel” is the most likely scenario according to Paul Maurice, if the results of the German legislative elections allow it. If they obtain enough votes to them, the parties will likely wish to govern in two, if necessary “a coalition between the CDU, the SPD and a third party like that of the Greens is possible”, completes the specialist.
“80% of voters vote for traditional parties and three-quarters of them categorically reject all alliance with the extreme right.”
Coalitions combining right and left forces are commonplace in Germany and almost systematically preferred to an alliance with AFD, including in the East Länder where the extreme right is stronger and exceeds 30%. “The parties agree, whatever their political edge, to govern together against the extreme right,” says Paul Maurice, listing the examples: the coalition between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens in Saxony or that From the CDU with the SPD and the Populist left parties rather than with the extreme right in Thuringia. A position shared by the majority of voters of traditional parties according to the specialist: “If 20% of voters vote for AFD, 80% of voters vote for traditional parties and three-quarters of them categorically reject all Alliance with the extreme right “.
“The German democratic political system has been built on moral and political opposition to the experience of Nazism. However, when we speak of the far right in Germany, we necessarily have a reference to Nazism”, underlines the researcher to the ‘Ifri to explain the strength of the health cord. And AFD members do not hide their very marked ideology, some “were condemned because they used Nazi slogans prohibited by German justice,” recalls Paul Maurice. Among the voters of the AFD also some show a strong extreme right ideology, but others are “ancient abstainers who out of anger, out of dissatisfaction and now by ideological adhesion are turned to AFD at the expense Traditional parties “, analyst the researcher. Among these, a return to traditional parties, especially to a firmer and conservative right is possible according to the secretary general of CERFA which recalls that between 2017 and 2021 AFD had lost 1 million voters at the federal level .