Since her nomination as Vice President of the United States four years ago and her euphoric “We did it, Joe!”, we had almost forgotten her existence. Until this July 21, 2024. Here is Kamala Harris, who has gone from the shadows to the light thanks to this double coup by Joe Biden, who has given up running for a second term at the head of the country while endorsing the current number 2 in the White House. In less than twenty-four hours, the former senator and attorney general of California has amassed a lot of funds for her campaign and a host of support in the Democratic ranks.
The one who will enter her sixtieth year in October will have to obtain the nomination of her camp at the Democratic convention which will take place from August 19 to 22 in Chicago. On this point, believes Amy Greene, a specialist in the United States, Kamala Harris has many advantages over her potential rivals. If everything goes as planned and she is chosen by her people, she will then have to thwart the attacks of the Trumpists. A different kettle of fish. The Republicans, underlines this professor at the University of Paris Sciences et Lettres, “will not spare her any criticism”, particularly on the issue of the influx of thousands of migrants at the border between the United States and Mexico. A file that Joe Biden had entrusted to her at the beginning of 2021 and on which she did not particularly shine.
L’Express: Last Friday, Joe Biden said he would resume his campaign the following week. Two days later, he announced he was throwing in the towel. What happened in forty-eight hours to convince him to change his mind?
Amy Greene: His decision is probably the result of an accumulation of several factors that appeared obvious to him during his period of isolation. [NDLR : Joe Biden a été déclaré positif au Covid mercredi dernier]. Starting with the pressure from elected Democrats who, like Nancy Pelosi, called on him to withdraw from the race. Obviously, there was financial pressure. Major donors refused to give money while waiting to find out what Joe Biden was going to do. And then, above all, the latest polls clearly showed that it would be difficult to win in the swing statesthese swing states. Finally, in the background, there was another issue for the Democrats: a potential defeat in Congress in November.
Joe Biden’s economic record widely praised. Some observers are now worried that the United States is depriving itself of the best president…
What became clear was that since his failed debate with Donald Trump, which was a catastrophic sequence, there was nothing Joe Biden could have done that would have allowed him to regain control. That debate was a turning point. Whatever the record, whatever his successes, everyone saw his fragility. Joe Biden himself failed to change the narrative around his age. He had become inaudible. Added to that was the assassination attempt against Donald Trump, which had a galvanizing effect on Republicans. This situation is not ideal. It is not for me to judge whether this renunciation is fair or unfair for Joe Biden. That is his decision. For reasons of his own, he decided that he was no longer the man for the job. But millions of voters voted for him in the Democratic primaries. They are now disappointed in his decision.
After Joe Biden’s announcement, Barack Obama called for “a process from which an exceptional candidate will emerge”, without mentioning Kamala Harris. The same goes for Eric Adams, the mayor of New York. Even though she has received many endorsements, is Kamala Harris guaranteed to be invested by the Democratic camp?
Barack Obama’s statement should not be interpreted as a lack of support. He is withdrawing from this debate so as not to give the impression that as soon as Joe Biden withdraws, he will automatically endorse Kamala Harris, as if the decision had already been made by the leaders of the Democratic Party. He did not mention her to protect her and to let the Democrats do the work internally. This is a way of ensuring that the nomination of Kamala Harris, if it occurs, will be stamped with the seal of legitimacy. I have no doubt that Barack Obama will subsequently give his full and unwavering support to the person who will have been invested. Furthermore, some Democrats, such as the Clintons, immediately aligned themselves behind Kamala Harris, which reassures people about her ability to be a candidate and win in November. It is quite normal for other Democrats to decide to stay above the fray while waiting for the party to make its choice.
“Kamala Harris is a very tenacious personality. She knows how to speak very credibly on issues that galvanize Democrats.”
But I think it will be very difficult for another candidate to position themselves credibly against Kamala Harris. First, because as Vice President of the United States, she already knows the workings of power. Then, regarding the use of the money that has already been collected for Joe Biden’s campaign, it will be much easier if she is the one invested. [NDLR : les donations faites à la campagne démocrate étaient destinées à la candidature de Joe Biden et de Kamala Harris, sa colistière]. In addition to this financial advantage, she has the advantage of being a familiar face to the American electorate. A logistical advantage too: her team is already on the ground contacting delegates to garner maximum support because they are the ones who will decide on the nomination of the Democratic candidate.
Beyond these logistical advantages, can Kamala Harris compete with Donald Trump?
It should be noted that Joe Biden’s campaign team had begun to very discreetly sound out Kamala Harris’ chances against Donald Trump. They found that she was just as competitive as Biden, if not more so. This renunciation by Biden and a possible nomination of Kamala Harris could have the effect of galvanizing the Democratic camp, which will say to itself: this is our last chance. If Kamala Harris is nominated, the Democrats will have no choice but to support her massively.
As vice president, Kamala Harris has not been particularly brilliant…
This is the real challenge for her. The Republicans will not spare her any criticism, particularly on the issue of illegal immigration at the southern border of the United States, an issue that Joe Biden had tasked her with from the outset. On this point, in fact, she does not have a very positive record to rely on. She will probably choose another axis: telling the story of the record of the Biden presidency in which she participated. And claiming this record. She will also have to do some work to raise her profile among Americans. They know more or less who she is, but they do not know her very well. She will have to convince traditionally Democratic supporters.
But Kamala Harris is a very tenacious personality, who expresses herself well. She knows how to speak very credibly on subjects that galvanize the Democratic Party, such as the right to abortion, but more generally on areas that worry many Americans. Her profile is another advantage: she is a woman, black and Asian, and by her age she also represents a generational break with candidate Trump, the oldest to be invested in the American presidency.
How will the Trump camp review its strategy?
This is a possibility that they have been preparing for several weeks now. They will first be vigilant about how the transfer of money from donations will be done between Joe Biden’s team and Kamala Harris’ team in order to try to challenge its legality in court. They also quickly attacked him personally, making fun of his laughter. They will obviously attack him on Joe Biden’s record and on immigration, which is at the heart of Americans’ concerns. They have also started to call for Joe Biden’s resignation, believing that if he is not capable of running for a second term, he is also not capable of continuing his work in the White House. But this argument is a smokescreen. The Republicans will try to capitalize on this moment of hesitation among Democrats to attack on all fronts.
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