ELECTION BRAZIL. While the result of the presidential election is to be known this Sunday, October 30, 2022, Bolsonaro’s possible defeat against Lula casts the shadow of a protest movement over Brazil. Are riots possible?
What if the result of the presidential election was disputed in Brazil? It is a possibility that voters fear as the verdict of the ballot is to be revealed on the night of this Sunday, October 30. Blame it on disinformation campaigns and accusations that wrongly attack the reliability of the Brazilian electoral system. The latter mainly carried by the bolsonarist camp push the militants and the voters of Jair Bolsonaro to believe that the victory of Lula can only be the result of a fraud. The fears concerning a contestation of the results are also and above all due to the speech of the outgoing president who himself assured during the presidential campaign that in the event of defeat he will not recognize the result of the election.
If only the possible challenge of Bolsonaro would only delay or complicate the transfer of power with Lula, followed by the Bolsonarist militants it can give rise to riots in the streets. Certain specialists in Brazilian politics, such as Frédéric Louault, vice-president of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean interviewed by Internet useranticipate larger movements that could go as far as the capture of institutions such as Congress.
Should we expect riots against the results of the election in Brazil?
The fear of a challenge to the result of the presidential election in Brazil was already present during the first round but the ballot having not crowned Lula, no uprising had been observed. This Sunday, the election will inevitably have a winner and a loser and if the poll signs the defeat of Bolsonaro, we must expect an unprecedented reaction. The incumbent president and his activists saw their hopes of victory reinvigorated after Bolsonaro qualified for the second round with a score higher than that announced by the polls and in the event of defeat, disappointment and anger will be only more. strong.
Bolsonaro’s electoral base is known for its radicalism and violence, since September and the celebration of the bicentenary of Brazilian independence, Bolsonarist activists regularly say they are ready to take to the streets on election night to ensure that the incumbent president remains in power. It is this aggressiveness that is feared and rightly so since the presidential campaign has already had its share of violence with several deaths among activists, mainly those of Lula. According to the individual declarations of the Bolsonarists, their dissatisfaction in the event of defeat could be expressed by mobilizations in the streets, but others aim higher and plan to seize places of power by force. Difficult to anticipate with certainty the form of the disputes but riots seem possible.
Can Bolsonaro challenge Brazil’s election result?
During the presidential campaign, Jair Bolsonaro prepared everything to challenge the result of the presidential election if the latter gives him the loser: by creating mistrust vis-à-vis the Brazilian electoral system and by maintaining the anger of its activists. The strategy put in place several months before the election has borne fruit since a few days before the vote, some Bolsonarist activists maintain that the electronic ballot boxes used for voting are rigged and favor Lula. With the weight of a large part of the population, it will be easy for Bolsonaro to initiate a protest movement.
Has Boslonaro given up contesting the election results if he loses?
With the approach of the presidential election, Jair Bolsonaro took a step aside regarding the contestation of the results. On Friday October 28 after the presidential debate, the outgoing president assured to recognize the results whatever happens: “There is not the slightest doubt. Whoever has the most votes wins. It’s democracy” noted CNN Brasil. A week earlier, on October 21 on the same media, he explained: “If the transparency commission, in which the armed forces also participate, shows nothing abnormal, there is no reason to doubt the result of the elections”. It should be noted, however, that the armed forces cited by the candidate as an authority figure to judge the legitimacy of the ballot are at the boot of Jair Bolsonaro. It cannot therefore be ruled out that irregularities, verified or unfounded, may be reported to allow the Head of State to contest the outcome of the vote.
Aware of the risk that Bolsonaro will deny the results of the election, Lula has repeatedly called on the incumbent president to recognize the vote of Brazilian voters, to “shut up” and “not to confuse the country”. As if to put Bolsonaro at odds in the event of a dispute, the former president recalled having himself lost the ballot three times without ever questioning the election: “Each time I lost I returned home. I didn’t swear and didn’t blame anyone but myself.” The message got through.