This is the fear of several presidential candidates on April 10 and 24: a demobilization of voters. The countryside is crushed by the war in Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron dominates the polls, the French could lose interest in a poll played in advance.
This is the disaster scenario for Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The candidate of the National Rally (RN) has in mind the desertion of her voters in the last regional. The popular categories, the heart of his electorate, are the most volatile. So, between a war in Ukraine and a president-candidate who doesn’t need to campaign to win in the polls, the French could say to themselves that the presidential election is already over. Less than a month from the first round, difficult to be interested in a campaign in weightlessness. No major subject is needed, apart of course from Ukraine.
” Nothing is played »
Emmanuel Macron told the parliamentarians of his camp that ” nothing was decided “. The reality is that Emmanuel Macron refuses to step into the arena just yet. No debate, no meeting, no direct interaction with his rivals, which enrages them. Éric Zemmour, for example, accuses the head of state of wanting to confiscate the debate and of depriving the French of a real campaign.
Could debates on television be a game-changer?
These debates are often closely followed by viewers. Éric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse lent themselves to it this week. Other broadcasts are planned, but most without confrontation between the candidates. They just answer questions one after another. France 2 is trying to organize a real debate at the end of the month, but everything will depend on Emmanuel Macron. If the outgoing president participates, his competitors will. If not, ” we won’t face others “, warns, categorically, an adviser to Marine Le Pen.
The risks of high abstention in the presidential election
First, a problem of legitimacy. Winning an election is good, but if a small majority of voters went to the polls, then it’s difficult to present yourself as the president who can bring the country together. Some candidates are already predicting the return of “yellow vests”. These demonstrators denounced a democratic system that no longer represented them. A badly elected head of state could reignite the fuse.
A real campaign still possible?
There are still four weeks before the election. It’s short and long at the same time. It is still possible to interest voters. Because, if the French desert the intermediate polls, the presidential election is the queen election. More than 78% participation in 2017. And then the pollsters note it: voters are making their choice later and later, sometimes in the last week. Even very very short, a real campaign could take place.
