“A key period” • Economic collapse • Putin must make critical decision
Kyrylo Budanov’s message is clear: Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine will be significantly impaired—and soon.
Budanov, who is the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence service, claims that, according to his own calculations, Russia will face serious economic problems that risk long-term damage to the country, from mid-2025 onwards.
That’s what Tankesmedjan writes Institute for the study of warafter taking note of Budanov’s statement at the Yalta European Strategy meeting in Kiev, this weekend.
– It is a decisive time for them. They want to end the war then (late 2025, early 2026). Because according to their own calculations, if they don’t get out of this war, then the Russian Federation will in the long term – within the next 30 years – lose the superpower status they are striving for, says the Chief of Intelligence.
“A key period”
Citing Russian documents, Budanov states that if Russia does not win, by the end of 2025 there will be only two superpowers left in the world: the United States and China.
– They are aware of this. This is a key period for them. So they will do anything to win. Otherwise, they will drop absolutely all global processes. All they can rely on is regional leadership and they are not happy with that.
During the weekend’s speech, Budanov also called the Russian mobilization problem “urgent”.
According to the intelligence chief’s assessment, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be forced to make a critical decision: either start another risky and controversial mobilization or reduce the intensity of combat operations in Ukraine.
On Monday, news came from the Kremlin. Putin orders Russian army to be expanded by 180,000 soldiers, reports Reuters. The army would then consist of 1.5 million soldiers, according to the news agency. However, it is unclear how the mobilization will take place, but Roger Djupsjö at the Norwegian Defense University does not see it as impossible that it will succeed.
Dependence on North Korea
According to the intelligence chief’s further assessment, Western states will maintain support for Ukraine at current levels for the next one to two years. Budanov sees it as more unclear whether Russia’s partners will.
At the same time, ISW writes that the Russian army risks suffering from a shortage of weapons and that the country will in the future become increasingly dependent on cooperation with its allies to replenish its stocks.
The ISW thus states that Russia will probably have to rely on expanded military cooperation with China, Iran and North Korea to compensate for expiring weapons stocks.