Former intelligence colonel Martti J. Kari estimated in ‘s morning that Herson will be in Ukraine’s possession by the end of November.
A former intelligence colonel and researcher who visited in the morning Martti J. Kari estimates that in Ukraine in the direction of Kherson will happen by the end of November.
According to Kari, conflicting information is coming from the scene: on the one hand, Russia is fortifying and building defense stations on the east bank of the Dnieper, which points to the defense of the area where the Russian troops are preparing.
On the other hand, residents of the city of Kherson and nearby villages are being evacuated, and the Russians have hinted at the possibility that the local Nova Kahovka dam would be damaged as a result of the fighting. A breach of the dam would lead to a significant flood in the area, and would make the Ukrainian advance a difficult scramble in the flooded fields. On the other hand, the flood would also be bad for the Russians.
– If the Russians blew up the Kahovka dam, most of their defense lines on the east side of the Dnieper would be under floodwater, Kari estimates.
Russia has to balance which movement in the region would benefit the most.
In any case, Ukraine has the initiative in Kherson, and Kari estimates that things will progress quickly.
– Ukraine is pressing, and probably by the end of November, the Russians will have to give up the Kherson region.
This will probably be followed by a freezing of the fighting in the region: the Ukrainians control Kherson and the west bank of the Dnieper, the Russians with their defense lines the east bank of the Dnieper. We’ll stay put for the winter.
– Crossing the river would be an extremely challenging operation for the Ukrainian troops, says Kari.
Such a stalemate in Kherson would mean that the main point of Ukraine’s operations would probably move further north, towards the operational direction of Kharkiv. Here, Ukraine would take over operational space from the direction of Donetsk and Luhansk, until it could launch larger attacks towards, for example, Mariupol in the spring.
These would be aimed at cutting Russia’s land connection between Crimea and the so-called people’s republics occupied by Russia.
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