Several scenarios would make it possible to avoid the political and budgetary chaos promised by the censure voted against the Barnier government. The objective: to propose a new budget for France.
The Prime Minister did not resist the motion of censure which was voted by the absolute majority of deputies, and more, on Wednesday December 4. The outcome of the vote was announced after the promise of the deputies of the National Rally (RN) and its Ciottist allies to support the text tabled by the New Popular Front (NFP). A total of 331 elected officials voted for the dismissal of the government, including all those of the RN, their allies and the NFP with a single exception. A minimum of 288 votes were needed to censure the Prime Minister and his executive.
A decision which plunges the country into the political and economic unknown, in particular concerning the 2025 Budget and its examination which was underway – for the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) – just before the vote of censure. The State budget (PLF) is concerned and will also be impacted.
As a reminder, the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) and the finance bill (PLF) are two different things. If the two projects are presented at the same time, their nature differs. While the PLF sets the State budget for the coming year (expenditures and revenues), the PLFSS aims to control social and health expenditures and Social Security revenues. The preparation of this PLFSS falls within the competence of the government.
Solutions for the country to have a budget
The fall of Michel Barnier could have serious consequences on the 2025 budget, currently being examined in Parliament, and more broadly, on the functioning of the country. First, the examination of the finance bill (PLF) will stop. Direct consequence: it will be almost impossible for a new Prime Minister and a new government team to table a new budget before the end of the 2024 calendar year.
First option for the resigning government or the new government appointed, to use article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF). It allows the country to function without a government and without a voted budget. This “joker” is based on a “special bill authorizing it to collect existing taxes”, until the vote on a next finance bill at the start of next year. In other words, by continuing to apply the 2024 Budget.
At the start of 2025, the resigning government could also use ordinances to enforce its budget. Please note, this option is only possible if the debates for the adoption of the finance bill (PLF) exceed 70 days. The provisions of the draft finance law may be brought into force by ordinance”, indicates article 47 of the Basic Law. This is the last constitutional hypothesis. The end of the constitutional deadline is set for December 21, 2024, this year This order has never been used in France. In this case, the country would then have a budget, but would not have a new government, simply a resigning government managing current affairs.
Another option on the table and not the least: article 16 of the Constitution giving Emmanuel Macron “full powers”, in theory, to impose his own budgetary decisions by decree. So, in fact, France could find itself purely without a budget in 2025. “The consequence could be very serious for the country (…) It is the absence of a budget, the absence of a finance law, or start with revenues from 2024, that is to say with a heavy deficit, an update which is not being done”, already warned the Minister of Justice Didier Migaud, last November 25 on France 2. In other words, it would be a status quo compared to the 2024 budget. The government recently counted on a public deficit reaching 6.1% of GDP this year, a target far from the initial ambition of 4.4% of GDP, or that of last spring (5 .1%).
“There is absolutely no risk of a shutdown” in the American style
What about the salaries of civil servants? “If you don’t have a budget for next year, that means that civil servants are not paid,” said the former Prime Minister and now Calvados MP, Elisabeth Borne, on the set of C à You, last October 24 during the promotion of his book. A notable release, which recalls a practice rather associated with the United States. Indeed, this situation is possible on the other side of the Atlantic. It is called “shut down” and consists of closing administrations if the American Congress does not agree on the vote on a budget. However, in France, the operation is not the same.
To get there, the text would have to be definitively rejected by both chambers of Parliament: the National Assembly and the Senate, at the same stage of the process, and during the same reading, which is very rare. Also, the Constitutional Council should validate a special bill which would allow the executive to collect taxes and pay a minimum volume of credits. The famous ordinances, mentioned above, could then make it possible to ensure the payment of civil servants’ remuneration. “There is absolutely no risk of a shutdown. There will be vital cards that will work, civil servants will be paid. We must get away from apocalyptic scenarios,” indicated Benjamin Morel, constitutional expert and lecturer in public law, in the columns of Europe 1, Monday December 2.