The Prime Minister must adopt a 2025 budget, without having a majority in the Assembly. Mission impossible?
Without an absolute majority in the Assembly, and only having a parliamentary base of 220 elected officials who have expressed their discontent on various points – including the upcoming tax increase, Michel Barnier seems to be at an impasse. The Prime Minister finds himself facing a historic challenge to have the 2025 budget adopted before December 31. The political situation is so improbable that a vote by deputies validating his project even seems an less and less realistic option.
Even if the National Rally abstains on the budget vote, it is likely that the entire left will vote against, and that a certain number of deputies from the central bloc will refuse to vote for. Michel Barnier, faced with the considerable risk of rejection of the text, could be tempted to use article 49.3 of the Constitution, allowing the adoption of a law without a vote, provided that a motion of censure does not overturn the government. A risky choice since the majority opposition, made up of the New Popular Front (193 deputies) and the National Rally (126 deputies), could easily reach the 289 votes necessary to bring down the government. But until then, the RN is playing its card: it is in opposition, but supports this government by refusing to censor it. The Prime Minister is therefore undoubtedly banking on the benevolent neutrality of the far right in the event of recourse to 49.3.
A political coup from Macron at the end of the year?
Michel Barnier could turn to article 47 of the Constitution, an option allowing the main measures of the budget to be passed by ordinance in the event of parliamentary stalemate. This emergency procedure authorizes the government to collect taxes and open credits by decree to maintain the operation of public services. Such a measure would be similar to those already taken in 1962 and 1979 to alleviate blocking situations.
If the blockage continues, some observers even imagine a new scenario: direct intervention by the President of the Republic. According to constitutional experts, Emmanuel Macron could, as a last resort, invoke article 5 of the Constitution, which gives him the power to guarantee “the proper functioning of institutions and the State”. Experts in constitutional law even go so far as to mention the use of article 16, which would allow the president to take full powers in the event of a serious threat to the nation. According to this article, “when the institutions of the Republic, the independence of the nation, the integrity of its territory or the execution of its international commitments are threatened in a serious and immediate manner and the regular functioning of public authorities constitutional is interrupted, the President of the Republic takes the measures required by these circumstances. Can we imagine that the Head of State would invoke this article for an unvoted budget? Such an interpretation, however, seems excessive: does the current budgetary situation really not represent an immediate threat to the integrity of France?