BRUNO THE MAYOR. After five years at Bercy, the current Minister of Economy and Finance is part of the pending list, that of those who are not guaranteed to be reappointed to the government. If he leaves his post, who will replace him? Will he be in charge of another portfolio?
[Mis à jour le 18 mai 2022 à 16h31] While the name of the Prime Minister was revealed on Monday May 16, the mystery remains as to the composition of the future government. The fate of the government team is pending, at least until Friday, May 20, the day when a new council of ministers is to be held, according to France Info, which quotes the Elysée. For some, however, the pressure is less strong: a Gabriel Attal, government spokesperson who scored points at the end of the five-year term, or a Gérald Darmanin, a close collaborator of the president, are unlikely to pack up. There are also those who are leaving definitively, from former Prime Minister Jean Castex who wanted to retire from public life for a time, to Jean-Baptiste Djebbari, the Minister of Transport who already has a secure job elsewhere.
And then there are those whose fate is not yet sealed: this is the case of the Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire. Arrived in office in 2017 under the government of Edouard Philippe, he was reappointed to his functions in the government of Jean Castex, with an expanded position at the revival. He went through the various crises we know, from the pandemic to the impact of the war in Ukraine on purchasing power. Figure of the French right, he proved his usefulness in the LREM camp and said he was “serene”, as for the ministerial reshuffle in preparation (comments made to the press on the sidelines of a company visit to Tourcoing on Tuesday). .. But he is not the only one to be approached for this position. Not to mention that the portfolio of Minister of the Economy could be reshaped for this mandate, and that Emmanuel Macron has promised a “major reform” which would be based on a renewal of his policy, and therefore of the government. This second five year term should therefore not be a continuation of the first, as he promised on the evening of his re-election. Since the ministers certain to be reappointed are already five in number, a salvo of new personalities should join the government, thus replacing the current ministers. What are his chances of Bruno Le Maire retaining his responsibilities?
The first argument in favor of his retention in the government is his remarkable career in the institutions. In the opinion of those close to him, Bruno Le Maire was “programmed” to become a minister. With his degrees from Sciences Po Paris and the ENA in his pocket, he entered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs directly in the Department of Strategic Affairs, Security and Disarmament. A position that allowed him a few years later to collaborate with the Minister of Foreign Affairs at the time, Dominique de Villepin, in 2002 and 2004. He then stood out by helping the minister write the famous UN speech of February 14, 2003 against the war in Iraq. In 2005, when Dominique de Villepin became Prime Minister, he obtained the position of his chief of staff. Officially a member of the UMP party in 2007, he was appointed Secretary of State for European Affairs in the Fillon government in 2008, then Minister of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries in 2009. After a period of beating ( see her biography), it is the hour of glory with the appointment to the post of Minister of the Economy in the government of Edouard Philippe.
When Jean Castex becomes Prime Minister in 2019, Bruno Le Maire benefits from an extension of his post and receives the file “revival of growth”. And for good reason, the crises are there. To “clear the ground” of the yellow vests crisis, it was necessary to put in place a budget extension of around 10 billion euros. To deal with the pandemic, the ravages of which were felt in all sectors, it was necessary to accelerate the solidarity fund, increase the debt and grant loans. On the international level, it was necessary to ensure negotiations with the European Union, in particular by investing in the development of the European recovery plan and resolving the thorny issue of post-Brexit fishing licenses. Then, we had to manage record inflation, partly due to the war in Ukraine and the rise in grain prices. Behind all this turbulence, it was Bruno Le Maire who coordinated the decisions. A longevity at Bercy to say the least “singular”, as he said himself (comments reported by The cross), the position being usually characterized by a high turnover (as a reminder, he is the only Minister of the Economy since 1995 to have held an entire mandate).
Despite his long political experience and the many responsibilities he has had since 2017, Bruno Le Maire is not among the names of those whose renewal is assured. In any case, this is what Politico advances in its newsletter of May 18, revealing that Emmanuel Macron is circumspect about the “presidential ambitions” that Bruno Le Maire would maintain. In addition, the president is said to be thinking about a recomposition of this portfolio, with the desire to deconcentrate the powers of the future Minister of Economy and Finance, in particular by making the Ministry of Public Accounts a ministry in its own right, knowing that Olivier Dussopt, the current occupant of the post, was only minister delegate during this first mandate. The position would then be reduced, even though the Ministries of Finance and the Economy had been merged in 2016. Given the political “CV” and the career of Bruno le Maire, we can expect him to be reluctant to accept a position with a restricted scope of action.
Its balance sheet, with a 2022 budget loaded with expenses and a difficult fight against inflation (with the continual surge in energy prices), remains however mixed. He suffered numerous criticisms from the opposition, in particular from the rebellious left who were able to accuse him of neglecting the social aspect, with fiscal measures such as the end of the ISF, single lump sum levy and the withholding tax. Moreover, if its technical and European legitimacy is rather in good shape, its political weight remains marginal. But if we assume that he was one of the only ministers to last Emmanuel Macron’s entire five-year term and that the rebound in growth was much stronger than expected, we can estimate that he has a chance to stay a while longer in Bercy. If the opposite happens, will he have to leave the government? For now, sources agree that he should not leave the government team. Either way, he should be one of Elisabeth Borne’s collaborators. Many see him as Minister of Education, a burning issue which is one of the major projects of the five-year term. It should be noted, however, that he never confirmed these rumors.
After a five-year term of keeping the checkbook, it is currently difficult to say whether Bruno Le Maire will be able to remain in office. And in fact: other names are circulating, including that of Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, whose qualities are appreciated at LREM. However, her current position is important for the French government: if she left, she would probably be replaced by a German or Dutch personality. In the second position of the rumors, we also found Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner who was already for a time Minister of the Economy, Finances and Relaunch of France (2005-2007).
Bruno Le Maire declared on May 5 in Evreux, Normandy, that he would not be a candidate in the legislative elections. At 53, he has strong local roots in Normandy. In 2007, he was elected for the first time in the 1st constituency of Eure, under the UMP label. Reelected in 2012, he kept the constituency until 2017, when, if he was reappointed a third time in June, it was for a very short term: one month in total. He had preferred to give up his hat to focus on his new post as Minister of Economy, Finance and Recovery. This year, therefore, he does not intend to run for deputy.
He clarified this choice in a press release published on his Twitter account: “In accordance with my commitments, I will not serve more than three terms in the first constituency of Eure. Consequently, I will not stand for re-election in the legislative elections of the 12 and June 19. However, he insisted that he would remain “totally committed to national political life”, which was seen by some as a clue to his future within the government team.
Responsible for preparing and implementing the government’s economic and financial policy, the Minister of the Economy is a pillar of the central administration located in the Bercy district of Paris. Its general mission is to advise, prepare and implement the policy “defined by the Government in the field of the economy, finance, consumption and the repression of fraud as well as in matters of industry, services, small and medium-sized enterprises, crafts, trade, post and electronic communications, monitoring and support of tourist activities, as detailed in the official government website.
This minister is responsible for managing the policy of growth and competitiveness of the French economy, tax legislation, regulation, analysis and control of public procurement, monetary and financial policy at national, European and international level, or support for new technologies, their promotion and distribution.
It should be noted that in 2016, the Ministry of Economy and Finance was reunified after having been split into two ministries in 2014. Here is the list of Bruno Le Maire’s predecessors at the Ministry of Economy and Finance:
- Michel Sapin (August 2016 – May 2017)
- Emmanuel Macron (August 2014 – August 2016)
- Arnaud Montebourg (March 2014 – August 2014)
- Michel Sapin (March 2014 – August 2016)
- Pierre Moscovici (May 2012 – March 2014)
- François Baroin (June 2011 – May 2012)
- Christine Lagarde (June 2007 – June 2011)
- Jean-Louis Borloo (May 2007 – November 2010)
- Thierry Breton (February 2005 – May 2007)
- Hervé Gaymard (November 2004 – May 2005)
- Nicolas Sarkozy (March 2004 – November 2004)