The parliamentary elections to be held in Britain on Thursday will be held in the shadow of the economic crisis that is shaking the whole country. Inflation, a sharp rise in the cost of living and political instability are gnawing at the British.
The credibility of the ruling Conservative Party has eroded, and neither has the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has managed to restore half the reputation to its former glory.
Politico polls according to the main parties, the Labor Party leads the polls with around 40 percent support, while the Conservatives’ support is around 20 percent.
The Labor Party predicted to win elections for the first time in 14 years. The Labor Party has led in opinion polls already for more than a year and won overwhelmingly in the regional elections, which are considered a preview of the parliamentary elections.
For the Conservative Party even death is feared.
Opinion polls predict the worst result for the conservatives in the party’s nearly 200-year history. Conducting opinion polls YouGov predicts the Conservatives getting 108 seats and the Labor Party 425 seats in the 650-seat British Parliament.
Why is Britain holding an election right now?
Prime Minister Sunak announced new elections when the popularity of the conservatives began to wane. Holding elections in the summer is an advantage for the conservatives, because British inflation has finally started to subside, energy prices have fallen and the mood of the British has risen.
The last parliamentary elections were held in Britain in December 2019.
The term of the current parliament ends on December 17, so the elections should be held on January 28 at the latest. Chief Minister Rishi Sunak announced the dissolution of parliament in May and declared July 4 as election day.
Before this, many experts believed that the elections would be in the fall. The experts by the elections held on a fast schedule give the opposition worse opportunities to prepare for the elections.
– Sunak perhaps concluded that the Labor Party would be confused by early elections and that the conservatives would gain a strategic advantage from it, assistant professor Josephine Harmon estimated in May of the Northeastern publication by.
Sunak has aimed to reduce inflation to less than two percent, and consumer price inflation during the elections has calculated to about 2.2 percent.
Why have the British turned their backs on the Conservatives?
Britain has had three Conservative Prime Ministers since 2019. Each of them has weakened the party’s support in one way or another.
The last time the conservatives won an election was in 2019.
Boris Johnson during the Prime Minister’s term (2019–2022), the support of the Conservatives fell sharply when the Prime Minister became embroiled in scandals regarding the violation of corona restrictions. In July 2022, Johnson will resign from the leadership of his party.
After Johnson became prime minister Liz Truss. His prime ministership lasted only 45 days. Nevertheless, Truss had time to mess up the British economy.
Trussi’s promised tax reductions for the rich shocked the British, who were struggling with economic difficulties. The market also reacted violently to the announcements, leading to a drop in the pound’s exchange rate and forcing the Bank of England to intervene in order to stabilize the market situation.
Trussi was succeeded by Rishi Sunak, who was more popular among citizens than the party he represented when he took office.
The Prime Minister’s popularity was supposed to be reflected in the party’s popularity, but the opposite happened.
The change of prime minister strengthened the distrust of the British towards the conservatives and lowered Sunak’s popularity. When Sunak took office in October 2022, about half of Britons believed, that Sunak would be able to solve the problems of the British economy. A year later, the number was only 31 percent.
What kind of election themes do parties seek power with?
The British economy is the number one topic of the general election. Inflation, health care problems and the increased cost of living speak for themselves. Environmental protection, the Middle East crisis and immigration are also featured.
The Conservatives succeeded in achieving their goal, halving inflation to 11% in October 2022. Nevertheless, the British economy slipped into recession at the end of 2023.
Now the Conservatives promise to solve the problem of reducing the public debt. The Labor Party would raise the minimum wage. Both parties have promised not to raise taxes.
Another big talking point is the state of Britain’s Public Health Service (NHS).
After the corona pandemic, the NHS has been plagued by staff shortages and long waiting times. The Labor Party proposes to break up the queues by adding 40,000 treatment times per week. The conservatives, on the other hand, want to build 40 new hospitals. Both parties promise to increase the availability of mental health services in schools and colleges.
Housing costs have also been highlighted during the election campaign. Part of the problem with rising rents is due to rising interest costs.
Interest rates have been transferred to rents and as a result homelessness has increased in Britain. Last fall, the number of people seeking emergency accommodation in England rose by 27 percent compared to the previous fall, The BBC reports from the beginning of the year.
Both parties promise to build more than a million affordable homes in the next few years and to make it more difficult to evict tenants.
Is Brexit one of the election themes?
Brexit, i.e. Britain’s departure from the EU in 2020, has dominated the political discussion about Britain in Europe, but Brexit will not be an election topic in the upcoming British elections.
During the election, both parties have tried to talk about Brexit as little as possible, and this has caused disappointment in the British people.
Majority the British now consider Brexit a mistake. According to Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility, Brexit has slowed down Britain’s economic growth by four percent.
Neither of Britain’s main parties is going to push Britain back into the European Union.
Sources: AP, Reuters