ELECTION BRAZIL. Lula won the presidential election in Brazil on Sunday October 30 and congratulated himself in a speech while Bolsonaro did not speak on the results. Is the outgoing and beaten president preparing to challenge Lula’s victory?
[Mis à jour le 31 octobre 8h23] Lula was elected head of Brazil this Sunday, October 30, 2022 and several hours after the announcement of the results of the Bolsonaro election has still not been heard. While the winner of the ballot extended in speech and congratulations, the loser did not express himself even by a message on social networks, while he is usually very prolific on these platforms. This absolute silence makes it difficult to envisage the reaction of the outgoing president: will he respect the result of the presidential election or will he call for a contestation of the ballot? Lula again called on Bolsonaro to bow to the verdict but still fears that the far-right man will stand in the way of his victory and his coming to power: “I need to know if the president that we beat will allow a transition to take place,” he said after the results were announced.
If Bolsonaro remains discreet since the announcement of the results, several of his allies have recognized the defeat of the outgoing president. These statements are not, however, a sign of the absence of an upcoming challenge. Because the silence of the far-right man can be a strategy pending the publication of the reports of the transparency commission on the presidential election: during the last week of the campaign, the candidate specified accepting the results only on the condition that “nothing abnormal” is declared or with the score very tight with only two million votes difference, the outcome of the ballot is difficult to digest for Bolsonaro, especially since he is the first Brazilian president not to be re-elected for a second term. In addition to the question of the future dispute, Lula is also worried about the transition and the transfer of power because during the next two months the two men will have to work to prepare for Lula’s arrival in power on January 1, 2023.
Should we expect riots against the results of the election in Brazil?
Contrary to some fears, the contestation of the results of the election in Brazil did not take place in the wake of the announcement of Lula’s victory. But the fears are still present when Jair Bolsonaro has not said a word for several hours. Given the very tight score (50.9% for Lula against 49.1% for Bolsonaro), the probability that the outgoing president will point to fraud and claim victory is strong. A dispute is therefore still possible, but it is difficult to anticipate the form it will take. When the results were announced and in anticipation of a mobilization of Bolsonarist militants, Lula’s supporters filled the streets to show their satisfaction and prevent protest riots.
The fact remains that if Bolsonaro calls for protest in the coming hours or days, his electoral base, known for its radicalism and aggressiveness, will mobilize. Since September, Bolsonarist activists have regularly said that they are ready to take to the streets on election night to ensure that the outgoing president remains in power. It is this aggressiveness that is feared and rightly so since the presidential campaign has already had its share of violence with several deaths among activists, mainly those of Lula. According to the individual declarations of the Bolsonarists, their dissatisfaction in the event of defeat could be expressed by mobilizations in the streets, but others aim higher and plan to seize places of power by force. Difficult to anticipate with certainty the form of the disputes but riots seem possible.
Can Bolsonaro challenge Brazil’s election result?
During the presidential campaign, Jair Bolsonaro prepared everything to challenge the result of the presidential election if the latter gives him the loser: by creating mistrust vis-à-vis the Brazilian electoral system and by maintaining the anger of its activists. The strategy put in place several months before the election has borne fruit since a few days before the vote, some Bolsonarist activists maintain that the electronic ballot boxes used for voting are rigged and favor Lula. With the weight of a large part of the population, it will be easy for Bolsonaro to initiate a protest movement.
Has Boslonaro given up contesting the election results if he loses?
With the approach of the presidential election, Jair Bolsonaro took a step aside regarding the contestation of the results. On Friday October 28 after the presidential debate, the outgoing president assured to recognize the results whatever happens: “There is not the slightest doubt. Whoever has the most votes wins. It’s democracy” noted CNN Brasil. A week earlier, on October 21 on the same media, he explained: “If the transparency commission, in which the armed forces also participate, shows nothing abnormal, there is no reason to doubt the result of the elections”. It should be noted, however, that the armed forces cited by the candidate as an authority figure to judge the legitimacy of the ballot are at the boot of Jair Bolsonaro. It cannot therefore be ruled out that irregularities, verified or unfounded, may be reported to allow the Head of State to contest the outcome of the vote.
Aware of the risk that Bolsonaro will deny the results of the election, Lula has repeatedly called on the incumbent president to recognize the vote of Brazilian voters, to “shut up” and “not to confuse the country”. As if to put Bolsonaro at odds in the event of a dispute, the former president recalled having himself lost the ballot three times without ever questioning the election: “Each time I lost I returned home. I didn’t swear and didn’t blame anyone but myself.” The message got through.