Their stay in space will be longer than expected. At the beginning of August, NASA warned that the stay of the two astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams on the International Space Station (ISS) could be extended until 2025, whereas it was only supposed to last a week. The fault lies in the difficulties encountered by the Starliner capsule. Developed by Boeing, the craft has recorded helium leaks and propulsion problems. A new blow for the American flagship, whose activities in aeronautics have been weighed down by serious safety and quality problems since the two fatal accidents of 737 MAX in 2018 and 2019.
While NASA has made the return of its astronauts by Starliner its “preferred option”, it is now also exploring the possibility of repatriation via competitor SpaceX. This will reinforce the essential position occupied by Elon Musk’s company in “a large part of space activities”, believes Paul Wohrer, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). According to him, Elon Musk’s company could further widen the gap thanks to its Starship project, which is due to undergo a new test soon.
L’Express: At the beginning of August, NASA admitted that astronauts taken to the ISS by Boeing’s Starliner capsule would have to extend their stay in space. This event is the latest in a long series of bad luck for the American group, whose safety and quality practices have come under fire in the civil aeronautics sector. Is it the same in the space sector?
Paul Wohrer: It is difficult to get a clear picture of the situation without knowing exactly what is happening within the company. We know that after the acquisition of McDonnell Douglas, the culture at Boeing has changed. Some experts go so far as to say that it has gone from a culture of technical excellence to a culture of financial optimization. I cannot say whether it has reached that point, but it seems that this problem exists, likely to affect all areas of its activities. In aeronautics, the terrible crashes of 2018 and 2019, as well as the recent incident of the torn door, are evidence of this.
An audit report published by NASA’s Office of Inspector General also showed huge failures in the management of the colossal project that is the “Space Launch System” (SLS), to which can be added the delay and cost overruns in the development of the Starliner capsule. Boeing seems to have difficulty managing certain technical issues, which nevertheless have an impact on human lives. However, this is an issue to which NASA is all the more sensitive since it has recorded two major space shuttle accidents in its history, which cost the lives of 14 people.
How then can we explain that the American federal agency proceeded with the launch of Starliner despite several helium leaks identified in recent months?
The program is about a decade old: it is not at all surprising that it continued. NASA decided that it was safe to send the capsule. But it seems that these weak signals masked deeper problems in the management of the program, as evidenced by the difficulties encountered by the altitude engines of the Boeing capsule.
Has NASA’s policy of entrusting the design of transport vessels for the ISS to private actors weighed on its ability to supervise the work of the American group?
I don’t think so. If it has turned to private actors for the management of low orbit [NDLR : où se trouve l’ISS] Since the presidency of Barack Obama, to focus on deep space, NASA has always maintained a supervisory role. The logic has mainly consisted of entrusting private players with the development of ships, but at fixed costs. In short, if the development costs more than expected to the supplier, it is up to them to pay the additional costs. SpaceX has succeeded in this while Boeing is losing money with the Starliner.
The federal agency seems to be exploring the possibility of repatriating the two astronauts stuck on the International Space Station through SpaceX. Has Elon Musk’s company definitively conquered the space sector? How does it manage to continually widen the gap with the historical players?
SpaceX actually dominates a large part of space activities. Its arrival a little over ten years ago had a gigantic effect on the sector and many competitors have disappeared. The company has had a series of successes since its creation and its first partnerships with NASA, forcing the competition to revise its organization. Its activities in satellites with Starlink are thus beginning to pose serious problems for traditional operators. And if SpaceX does not yet dominate the most sensitive aspects of space, such as spy satellites for the military and intelligence agencies, it is quickly getting there.
It is not so much on technical innovations that SpaceX has distinguished itself as by its ability to offer reusable vehicles, which allow it to benefit from a sustained launch rate, and its level of integration. All this allows it to occupy an essential position. It will be interesting to see how many flights NASA buys from its two suppliers, namely Boeing and SpaceX, once the Starliner capsule is fully operational.
After a long period of uncertainty in the field of launchers, Europe witnessed the first take-off of Ariane 6 in July. Does it also have the means to acquire capabilities in the field of space capsules?
There are many private initiatives in Europe aimed at developing this type of capability, such as cargo capsules to provide services to the ISS or future stations that could be born in low orbit. Companies such as ArianeGroup and The Exploration Company are working on this. Thomas Pesquet, as well as all the astronauts of his generation, have also generated real enthusiasm in their respective countries. It remains to be seen whether the funding will follow, what the planned missions will be and, above all, what the political will will be in manned flight.
This is indeed a unique area in space activities, in that it is essentially aimed at generating prestige. However, Europe has never yet found a reason to develop autonomous capabilities in this area. Manned flight is the result of a political decision that has not yet been taken, although public enthusiasm must certainly have made decision-makers think. It is not at all a technical question: Europe has all the skills necessary to engage in it.
So should we expect a potential rival to SpaceX to emerge in countries like China?
Manned flight is one of the attributes of the great powers, and the Chinese have indeed developed their own capsules to launch taikonauts using technologies of Soviet origin. At a time when Sino-American rivalry is increasingly strong, the question of a new race to the Moon arises.
That being said, if we talk about a commercial rival as we understand it in Europe, the answer is clearly no. On the other hand, if we reason in terms of technological capabilities and not of the market, China could become capable of doing the same thing as SpaceX. The sector is moving a lot today, whereas it was very stable for a long time. Europe was at the top with Ariane 5, without possible competition. But the 2010s changed everything and that could continue. SpaceX’s heavy launcher, Starship, could be completed soon. The big question will be whether it will change the face of space again, as the previous rocket project did. A new test, planned for this month, could provide the beginning of an answer.
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