This is a warning for the current tenant of the White House. One year to the day before the 2024 presidential election, several polls overwhelm Joe Biden, showing him left behind by his rival Donald Trump, and disconnected from a deeply pessimistic American public opinion.
A poll published Sunday by the New York Timesgives the American president losing against Donald Trump, favorite in the Republican primary, in five key states out of six, and losing ground among young people and minorities alike.
Biden would only have Wisconsin left
In 2020, Joe Biden snatched victory in each of these “swing states”, states which “swing” between one camp and the other. But today, according to this opinion poll, the 77-year-old Republican billionaire dominates his 80-year-old Democratic opponent in voting intentions in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden would only have Wisconsin left.
“What we really need to remember? In a year, the American people will fire Joe Biden-the-Scum and recruit President Donald Trump to make America great again,” the Republican’s campaign commented in a statement to your triumphant tone.
Another poll commissioned by CBS gives Donald Trump in the lead in general voting intentions, with 51% against 48% for Joe Biden.
The example of Obama
“We will win in 2024 by going to work headlong, not by panicking over a poll,” replied Kevin Munoz, Joe Biden’s campaign spokesperson, putting into perspective the significance of polls carried out a year in advance. He took former President Barack Obama as an example, promised a crushing defeat, and ultimately easily re-elected a year later.
But according to strategist David Axelrod, who led this victorious 2012 campaign, the Democratic camp today has reason to feel “legitimate concern.” And to assert, on the social network in that of the country.”
An ambient pessimism
Polls published on Sunday reveal that the octogenarian president is unable to narrow the gap that seems to separate him from American public opinion. According to the CBS poll, 73% of Americans believe that their country is doing badly. An opinion survey from the ABC channel even gives 76% of Americans convinced that their country is going in the wrong direction.
67% of them think the same thing in the already cited New York Times poll, which also counts 71% of voters convinced that Joe Biden “is too old to be an effective president”.
Donald Trump’s age is generally less of a concern to voters. Public opinion therefore remains impervious to the proactive speech of Joe Biden, convinced of being best placed to beat Donald Trump again.
Gaza, inflation…
His fellow citizens are worried about their purchasing power, eaten away by inflation, and some fear seeing the United States dragged into a war abroad. Joe Biden repeats that he has “never been so optimistic” for America, praising the robust economy and the strong international alliances that he has forged.
Experts generally assure that foreign policy issues do not play a big role in Americans’ electoral decisions. But public support for Ukraine could erode, in the absence of significant military successes.
And the way in which Joe Biden has positioned himself in the face of the war between Israel and Hamas outrages many young voters, as well as Americans of Arab origin, two electorates which have until now been rather favorable to him. Several thousand people gathered in Washington on Saturday, calling for an immediate “ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip, and some criticizing “genocidal Joe”.
The Democrat hammered home Israel’s “right” and “duty” to defend itself. He has so far rejected calls for a ceasefire, but assures that he is working for a humanitarian “pause”.