Mika Aaltola, director of the Foreign Policy Institute, estimates that surprises are also expected in a tense security situation. Russia does not want anyone to know its plans exactly.
President of the United States Joe Biden has said he is convinced that the Russian president Vladimir Putin has decided to attack Ukraine.
According to Biden, it could happen in the next few days.
However, he said diplomacy is an opportunity until the attack.
“For some time now, the basic message from the United States has been that Russia has no obstacles to starting a war and that the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is quite possible and imminent,” says the director of the Foreign Policy Institute. Mika Aaltola.
According to Aaltola, by revealing Russia’s intentions, an attempt is made to prevent them – to deny the possibility of a surprise, which is often sought at the start of the operation.
– Underlining the threat of an immediate attack seeks to prevent it from materializing. This is well known for superpower relations. In other words, what is seen as Russia’s plan is told so that it is not so easy to implement, Aaltola says.
– If you now think that Putin has given permission to start the attack with a certain bell, he can also cancel it, he adds.
According to Aaltola, Biden is also trying to consolidate the ranks of the allies in the face of the threat and speed up the agreement on sanctions.
The United States also signals that it is prepared for an attack scenario.
Russia does not want to be what the United States predicts
Aaltola estimates that the United States knows well where to go. The United States is also signaling the strength of Western intelligence capabilities.
– Don’t think we don’t know what you’re doing, Aaltola describes.
At the same time, he stresses that there is a certain amount of mistrust built into these situations.
Russia does not want anyone to know its plans exactly. According to Aaltola, therefore, surprises are also expected.
– Russia is specifically trying not to be as the United States predicts. It could change the way Russia works.
– Nor can it be ruled out that Russia has managed to conceal and mislead the United States’ considerable intelligence capabilities.
However, Aaltola points out that Russia has not yet seen so-called preparatory measures to destroy Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
– The war would start with such actions.
Aaltola highlights the demonstration of superiority
Among other things, Russia has demanded that NATO no longer expand to the east.
If the demands of the threat are not listened to, great power politics traditionally shows what others do not believe by showing superiority, Aaltola points out.
– The showing of a superior military operation for which the West can do nothing shows, from Russia’s point of view, to the West that the security order established since the end of the Cold War is outdated and no longer based on the balance of power.
Its own question is whether Russia would be able to show strength in which Kiev would collapse in a few days or weeks.
– Many analysts think that it is not such an easy sausage. In that case, Russia would have shown its weakness, Aaltola says.
If, on the other hand, Russia believes in this capability, geopolitical logic would argue that Russia would consider it worthwhile to show off the terrain what it does not get by negotiating at the negotiating table.
Russia may also switch to other means if a large-scale massive show of power does not materialize.
– They could be related to, for example, the open takeover of eastern Ukraine or the capture of some strips of land. In a way, we would proceed with caution so that the West does not press the trigger for sanctions, Aaltola says. ** **
* You can discuss the topic until Sunday, February 20 at 11 p.m.