How to avoid errors of reasoning? This subject, studied at least since ancient Greece, has experienced great progress since the 1960s and 1970s and the development of research in psychology on cognitive biases and heuristics, modes of rapid reasoning providing a simple answer to complex problems. . In their illustrated book Beware of your brain, 30 cognitive biases described and explained to make less mistakes and better reason (Edition 41, 150p. €18.90), Gilles Bellevaut, illustrator, and Pascal Wagner-Egger, teacher-researcher in social psychology and statistics at the University of Friborg (Switzerland), try to popularize these sometimes complex concepts, but essential to understanding our way of thinking.
Supported by scientific studies, this little self-defense manual gives the keys to avoiding the traps set by our brains, but also by charlatans and gurus who take advantage of crises (Covid, war in Ukraine, etc.) to sell fake news and fake miracle cures. Many studies show that beliefs in conspiracy theories are linked to intuitive thinking and several cognitive biases, and that there are links between cognitive biases and religious thought where the paranormal beliefs. However, these beliefs can, in the extreme, become dangerous for individuals and society.
Confirm your beliefs rather than questioning yourself
One of the cognitive biases presented by the authors is that of confirmation, undoubtedly one of the strongest and most widespread in human beings, since it can influence all our opinions. It designates the tendency to favor the search for information in accordance with one’s hypotheses, beliefs, opinions, etc., to the detriment of contrary elements. It leads people to confirm their hypotheses rather than refute them and in several ways. In one study, for example, scientists presented participants with two versions of the same article proposing two opposing conclusions and asked them which was the more serious. Results ? Participants judged the article more solid if the conclusion was in agreement with their ideas.
Confirmation bias can also play out at the behavioral level. A racist person who exchanges with a person of another color than his will be less pleasant with him. The latter will in turn feel uncomfortable, respond less confidently, be defensive, even angry. The racist person will thus find there an apparent confirmation of his beliefs, a process qualified as “self-fulfilling prophecy” or “Pygmalion effect”. The authors also point out that the stronger the beliefs of all stripes (conspiratorial, religious politics, paranormal, etc.), the more the confirmation bias becomes conscious and motivated. “Thus, radicalized people no longer perceive the Truth except through a book, the words of a guru or a spiritual master, certain alternative sites on the Internet”, they note.
And if this bias contributes to our well-being by stabilizing our beliefs and creating a link through shared opinions and attitudes, it can also confine individuals to their beliefs, all the more strongly on the Internet and social networks. social, where “likes”, subscribers and other “friends”, as well as algorithms push us to stay in these “filter bubbles”, i.e. closed informational places that only present one version of reality.
I’m the best!
The illusory superiority bias describes the tendency to overestimate one’s own qualities and abilities compared to those of others. One of the techniques of the researchers to highlight it consists in asking participants to judge their own characteristics and those of an unknown person present in the room and who, apparently, carries out the same task as them, or whereas they judge themselves in relation to the “average individual”. The result of this research is that, on average, participants judge themselves to be better than the unknown person or “average individual”. Statistically, however, there are 50% of people below and 50% above the average.
In a study conducted in the United States, more than a thousand participants, for example, estimated their IQ to be 124 on average, whereas it was 102. This illusory superiority bias is even stronger among beginners, and is illustrated by the “Dunning-Kruger effect ,” which describes the fact that ignorant people are also ignorant of their ignorance. Thereby, many studies show that those who are less competent in an area overestimate their skills and show too much self-confidence, unlike those who are more competent.
Dig ever deeper into your beliefs
“Have you ever been stunned by seeing someone close to you gradually fall into conspiracy or a religious cult? Commitment escalation is a social and cognitive process that explains how we can, little by little, accept increasingly extreme beliefs or behaviors”, write Gilles Bellevaut and Pascal Wagner-Egger. This concept refers to a theory of the psychologist Kiesler who defines it as “the link that connects the individual to his behavioral acts”. Experiments in social psychology have also shown that the simple fact of signing a petition, giving the time in the street to someone who asks for it or, for an athlete, announcing on social networks that he is aiming a medal, will psychologically commit the individual to the cause of the petition, the person asking for something or the objective that he has publicly set himself.
But if these decisions may seem trivial, they can lead, later, to accepting other more expensive requests or putting too much pressure on themselves. Researches have for example shown that in the domain of financial decision-making, people responsible for previous failures tend to continue their investments in the direction of their initial decision, leading to an even greater failure. Other scientific studies have shown that smokers who agree to quit smoking for eighteen hours for the purposes of an experiment then agree more easily to go without tobacco for six days for another experiment, unlike smokers who who are directly asked to go without for six days. The escalation of commitment can thus be explained by exaggerated optimism, the illusion of controlling events, or even the irrecoverable costs already incurred in situations of overbidding that prevent going back.
A certain stubbornness in decisions can sometimes – but rarely – be crowned with success, but it can also lead to accepting increasingly extreme beliefs or behaviors. Which explains, moreover, that we do not understand why some people accept situations that are not, such as religious, conspiratorial, sectarian radicalization or even the pursuit of a destructive couple relationship.
Negativity and pessimism: the fault of our brain?
Negativity bias causes us to prefer negative information to positive. Numerous studies have in fact shown that human beings retain bad news better, but also that they spot hostile faces better than smiling ones, and that a negative image (a dead animal) stimulates the electrical activity of the body more. brain. This bias can also be observed in the media, which some accuse of reporting negative events too often. Yet that’s because bad news interests readers more, as audience figures show (but also because journalists’ job is to report society’s problems so they can be solved).
Of course, if Man only focuses on the negative, he can sink into depression, even misanthropy. But the negativity bias is not only… Negative! Its origin is probably evolutionary, since the primary function of the brain and of social life is to ensure our survival and that of our descendants in a hostile environment. Paying attention to hazards, diseases and threats provides a clear adaptive advantage! And, good news, research has shown that contrary to what one might think, this negativity bias tends to decrease with age, just as positive memories tend to be better retained in long-term memory. .
Linked to the negativity bias, that of pessimism produces a negative view of the present in relation to the past, which is often idealized. The famous: “It was better before”, whereas the past knew more often the war, the disease, the poverty, than today. The explanation for this bias would be that individuals are not so much nostalgic for the past as for their own youth. As explained before, long-term happy memories are more easily remembered. The pessimism bias is also partly ideological. In an Ifop poll carried out in 2018, 56% of those questioned believed that their parents lived better, 20% in a similar way and 24% less well. However, nearly 70% said they had succeeded in life. And the more respondents voted for right-wing candidates in the elections, the more they thought their parents were doing better. The pessimism bias can therefore be reinforced, or diminished, by political ideology, the authors point out.
“A bat and a ball are worth a total of 1.10 euros. The bat is worth 1.00 euros more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?”
Becoming aware of cognitive biases is undoubtedly the best way to fight against them. But it is also possible to become aware of our “simple” errors of reasoning thanks to tests measuring our cognitive reflection, the Cognitive Reflection Test, which abounds on the Internet. The goal is to pose a series of three to ten small arithmetic or logic problems, all of which elicit a quick and intuitive, but often wrong, answer that thinking can normally correct.
For example: “In a pond there is a bank of lilies. Every day the bank doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the bank of lilies to cover the pond, how many days does it take to cover half the pond? The intuitive answer is 24, except that the correct answer is… 47. Same with the problem: “A bat and a ball are worth a total of 1.10 euros. The bat is worth 1.00 euros more than the ball. How much does the ball ?” ? The intuitive answer is 0.10 cents. The good one is however… 0.05 cents, which a few seconds or minutes of reflection should confirm. Because if the brain deceives us enormously, it is not inevitable!