between Zelensky and Zalouzhny, the specter of a budding rivalry – L’Express

At the start of the invasion, according to polls, the population estimated that the war would only last a few weeks. Then, in December 2022, the majority of Ukrainians thought it would end in 2023. But almost eighteen months after its outbreak, the conflict continues to drag on, exhausting Ukraine’s population and resources. Constantly insisting on obtaining military aid despite the weariness of his partners, Volodymyr Zelensky regularly compares himself to Bill Murray in A day without enda weather presenter forced to relive the same day forever.

As all-out war enters its second winter, difficulties mount for kyiv. Despite heroic efforts and breaches in Russian defenses near Robotyne, the Ukrainian army, which lacks ammunition and cannot relieve its men, has only managed to advance 17 kilometers since June. Putin is playing for time, counting on Western fatigue and the re-election of Donald Trump. A few days ago, the European Union announced that it will not meet its promise last year to deliver one million shells by March 2024. For the moment, only 300,000 pieces were delivered to Ukraine.

In a column published in The Economist, the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces Valery Zaluzhny admitted an open secret: the counter-offensive is at a “dead end”. Without technological advancement and with a zero balance of power, the adversaries find themselves in a war of attrition reminiscent of the First World War. An assertion that was not to the liking of the Ukrainian government. Volodymyr Zelensky swept away this observation during the visit of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen: “There are difficulties, yes. There are different opinions [sur le conflit], It’s true. But I think we don’t even have the right to think about defeat. There is no alternative.” The Ukrainian president believes his country still has a chance of winning. One of the president’s advisers even went so far as to tell Ukrainian television that Zaluzhny’s remarks “facilitated work” of Russia, leading observers to wonder if the two warlords had not fallen out.

Another indicator, last week, the government dismissed General Viktor Khorenko, who headed the country’s special forces. The latter said that Valery Zaluzhny learned about his dismissal from the media – the commander of the armed forces did not confirm or comment on this statement. Defense Minister Roustem Umerov, whose predecessor Oleksii Reznikov was ousted by Zelensky in September amid a corruption investigation, said he could not publicly describe the reasons for the dismissal because such revelations could help Moscow.

Any failures in the hitherto well-coordinated communication between Zelensky and his general, whom he himself appointed in July 2021? The experts we interviewed speak more of “differences in strategy” on how to seek support from Westerners. “Zalouzhny sees the situation on the ground, Zelensky has a strategic, geopolitical vision for the coming months, but basically, the message is the same: everyone asks for weapons,” analyzes MP Yehor Chernev, member of the defense committee in Parliament .

Since the summer of 2022, rumors have been circulating about a dispute between the two warlords, recalls Ukrainian political journalist Kristina Berdynskykh, but for the moment, they have never been supported by concrete evidence: “Zaluzhny’s popularity displeases in the president’s office, because he is a figure who unites both supporters and critics of Zelensky, but the two talk to each other constantly, and Zelensky even said that he was satisfied with the commander’s work. One thing is certain, this supposed political opposition between the two figures is regularly used by Moscow in influence campaigns. Since the beginning of November, several videos from Russian sites have been circulating on Ukrainian social networks: we see, in these deep fakes, a fake Zaluzhny call for mutiny against Zelensky.

Although Valeri Zalouzhny has little interest in politics, he would nonetheless be one of the favorites if the presidential election took place in March and April 2024. With two reservations: the military does not have the right to present themselves according to Ukrainian law. And martial law does not allow a vote to be held. With six million Ukrainians abroad, twelve million displaced and a fifth of the occupied territory, a fair and safe election would be impossible, the Ukrainian political class and civil society agree. At the beginning of November, Zelensky definitively closed the door to a vote, despite growing pressure from abroad, notably from elected American Republicans.

Obstacles are piling up for kyiv. With the war in Israel and the risks of conflagration in the Middle East, Washington’s military capabilities and attention are reaching their limits. “It is very clear that Ukraine must depend more on itself, and that we must rely more on our own forces and on our military industry,” said Pavlo Klimkin, former foreign minister, even if this strategy is not without obstacles.

In this context, fatigue, economic difficulties and frustration of the population favor criticism, adds Volodymyr Fessenko. “People expected – and unfortunately some politicians contributed to this idea – that the war would end this year, when it has become clear that it will last and that it is not possible to say when it will stop,” believes the political scientist. As during the First World War, the second winter was conducive to divisions, against a backdrop of accusations of corruption, recruitment problems and criticism of the army. Nearly 22 soldiers from the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade were killed during a medal ceremony near the Zaporizhzhia front. An investigation was opened by the Minister of Defense to shed light on this criticized ceremony, which recalls Soviet military practices.

“There are more and more critics, but on the other hand, the Ukrainian people remain united ‘around the flag’ and around these people who lead our defense, our resistance to Russian aggression: and today, they “It’s mainly about Zelensky and Zalouzhny,” continues Volodymyr Fessenko. The latter are respectively trusted by 91 and 87% of respondents in surveys. For comparison, before the invasion, less than a third of Ukrainians placed their trust in the Ukrainian president. “Democracy is a process,” explains Olha Aivazovska, of the Ukrainian election observation NGO Opora. “It doesn’t matter if we have controversies, it just means that different opinions are expressed loudly and strong, even during war. It’s good to say when something is wrong in our country, that’s the only way to make it right.”