between sobriety and the search for gas, Europeans in search of solutions

” We sound the alarm “. As winter approaches in Europe, the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) does not hide his concern for the months to come. ” If it wants to avoid a gas shortage, Europe must act immediately “says Fatih Birol. Not only to stabilize stocks throughout 2023, but above all to anticipate winter 2023-2024.

Because the IEA has made its calculations: if ever Russia were to interrupt its deliveries, 30 billion cubic meters of gas could disappear from European reserves. ” These would then only be 65% full compared to 95% today “says Fatih Birol again.

The International Energy Agency warns against overconfidence, which it attributes to several factors: the mild weather in recent weeks in Europe with abnormally high temperatures; weaker than expected Chinese demand which enabled Europeans to obtain supplies easily; and above all, the attitude of Russia, which has never turned off the gas tap, unlike oil. In 2022, the European Union should thus have received 60 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Such a level will be highly unlikely ” in 2023, believes Fatih Birol, convinced that ” we are not at the end of our troubles “.

Africa to the aid of Europe?

Before the war in Ukraine, the European Union consumed 400 billion cubic meters of gas each year, 45% of which was supplied by Russia. But the conflict is now leading Europeans to question their energy sovereignty and the diversity of their supplies. ” We must ensure our independence from Russian oil, gas and coal “, declared in March the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

The EU has set itself the objective of reducing its dependence on Russian gas by two thirds this year and plans to be able to do without it 100% by 2027. Since the war in Ukraine, the Commission and the Member States themselves are therefore increasing contacts with other producing countries: the United States, Qatar, Egypt and Algeria, to name only the main ones, to which are added new players such as Senegal or the Republic Democratic Republic of the Congo who aspire to develop their deposits, many of them recently discovered.

The European strategy is not devoid of paradoxes: if it does not exclude obtaining more supplies of African gas, the EU does not fail to remind developing countries that they must redouble their efforts to do without fossil fuels and better fight against global warming.

Macky Sall sees it as an “injustice”

” Not being the biggest polluters, it would be unfair to want to ban Africa from using the natural resources that are in its basement. “, warned the Senegalese president during the visit in May of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. For African civil society committed to climate issues, there is nevertheless urgency: the CO2 emissions released throughout the world have never been so high (40.6 billion tonnes in 2022) and the objective of containing the global warming at 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era is gradually receding.

It seems all the more out of reach as investments in renewable energies continue to be sorely lacking, particularly in Africa: according to a study published this week by the firm BloombergNef, 434 billion dollars have been invested in renewable energies in across the planet in 2021, of which only 2.6 billion on the African continent. In other words, 0.6% of the world total.

(And with AFP)