To warnings from the United States embassy in Russia, according to which “extremists” had “the intention of targeting large gatherings in Moscow”, the head of the Kremlin was content to respond “niet”. “All of this looks like pure and simple blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society,” said Vladimir Putin on March 7.
Almost two weeks later, in Moscow, some 133 people died in an attack targeting a concert hall in the suburbs of Moscow, this Friday, March 22. An attack claimed by the Islamic State group on one of his Telegram accounts in the evening.
If the branch of the organization which committed the attack is not specified, the gaze of experts turns to the Afghan section of Daesh, the Islamic State of Khorasan (EI-K) – from the historical name of a part from the Indian subcontinent. “In the jihadist imagination, Khorasan also includes certain territories of the former USSR,” specifies Myriam Benraad, professor of international relations at Schiller International University, interviewed by The Express.
Russia, however, knew it was being targeted. On March 7, the security services (FSB) announced in a press release that they had killed members of EI-K who were “preparing to carry out a firearm attack against the faithful of a synagogue” in Moscow. . In addition, the FSB indicated that it had seized “firearms, ammunition and components for the manufacture of an explosive device”.
“A long-term enemy”
For Islamists, Moscow is “a long-term enemy,” says Myriam Benraad, author of Is ISIS defeated? (Editions CNRS, 2023). “IS only came late to join what was an internal Islamist insurgency in the former USSR,” continues the specialist, referring to the long-standing rivalries between the Republics of the Caucasus and the Russian power. The two consecutive wars in Chechnya, between 1994 and 1996 and then between 1999 and 2009, only fueled this hatred.
Majority Muslim, Chechnya is imbued with a jihadist tradition. “There have always been dissidents as well as a surge of Islamism within these Republics,” says Myriam Benraad. Some of them gathered within a self-proclaimed “Caucasus Emirate”, which covers Chechnya, but also Ingushetia and Dagestan, its followers pledged allegiance to Daesh in 2014. Then, in 2015, the head of the Emirate from the Caucasus, Magomed Suleymanov, is assassinated by Moscow special units in the Russian Republic of Dagestan. Almost all of the fighters then decide to leave for Syria or Iraq to wage their jihad.
Daesh notably recruited the man nicknamed the “Chechen”, Omar al-Chichani. The leader and military strategist of the organization died in Iraq in July 2016. Thus, according to the FSB, in 2017, at least 4,500 Russians were on the side of terrorist groups and were mostly from the Caucasian Republics. Myriam Benraad believes that the Moscow attack was “undoubtedly orchestrated by a majority of Russian nationals”.
Chechen fighters, due to their military know-how acquired during long years of war against Russia, are particularly respected within the terrorist organization. Furthermore, ISIS has produced propaganda materials in Russian – such as the Istok magazine, the al-Hayat Media Center – and has promoted the cause of terrorist militants fighting on Russian soil.
Agreement with the Taliban
In addition to these internal rivalries, the Islamist group’s propaganda often emphasizes the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, from 1979 to 1989, to account for Russia’s record of aggression against Islam. Moscow’s recent stance against EI-K and, by necessity, in favor of the Taliban in power in Afghanistan, has not improved relations. Although the latter have been qualified as a “terrorist organization” in Russia since the early 2000s, the expansionist ambitions of EI-K have made this group Moscow’s number 1 target in its fight against terrorism.
The group “called for attacks worldwide on anyone who is not aligned with [son] extremist ideology”, indicated General Michael Kurilla, commander of the United States Central Command, during a hearing before the Armed Services Committee in the House of Representatives, in April 2023.
Reason why Moscow had welcomed, even before the fall of Kabul, a Taliban delegation, on July 9, 2021, to inform them of Russian concerns relating to a possible contagion of instability from Afghanistan to Central Asia but also of the threat that EI-K could pose to Russia from Afghan soil. On October 3, 2021, Russia was also among the first to condemn the explosion of a mosque in Kabul, claimed by the Islamic State of Khorasan.
Interference in the Sahel
“The support of the Russians for regimes which are at war against the jihadists fuels the feeling of resentment” of the IS, observes Myriam Benraad. A logic also valid in Africa, and in particular in the Sahel: Russia is a competitor in this region where Daesh has been established for several years. In Mali for example, the terrorist group “took advantage of the void left by the departure of Operation Barkhane”, says Seidik Abba, Sahel specialist, to TV5 World. And continues: “IS relied on the bankruptcy of African states.”
Moscow is also trying to extend its influence in the region, with different means: sending mercenaries, propaganda, disinformation, support for coups d’état… “This strategy is perceived as ‘disbelieving’ interference in the land of Islam”, tells us the specialist in international relations.
Putin, support of Bashar al-Assad
Russia is also accused of interference in Syria, where Vladimir Putin launched a military operation in 2015. This responded to an official request for “military aid” from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. For Russia, it was the first military intervention outside the borders of the former Soviet Union since the Afghan War.
By taking up the Syrian issue, Vladimir Putin aimed to build an alternative anti-terrorist coalition to that which had been led by the United States since 2014. Thus, Moscow allied itself with Tehran and Damascus to fight against Daesh. “This military intervention reversed the situation at a time when Syrian power was close to collapse. It was notably the one that allowed Bashar al-Assad, sworn enemy of the jihadists, to regain power in Syria.”
The attack perpetrated in Moscow this Friday comes on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the fall of Baghouz, the last territorial stronghold of the Islamic State in Syria. A way for the terrorist group to remind people that it is indeed still active?
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