Bernard Cazeneuve is back in the race for Matignon and he could take the advantage while the appointment of the Prime Minister is expected this Thursday, December 12, if Emmanuel Macron meets his own deadlines.
The tide seems to be turning regarding the appointment of the future Prime Minister and it could blow into Bernard Cazeneuve’s sail. While an announcement is expected on the evening of this Thursday, December 12, provided that Emmanuel Macron respects the deadline that he himself set, the former socialist finds a good place in the race for Matignon according to the latest indiscretions. He would even have a chance of overtaking François Bayrou who has been the favorite for days according to certain observers: if the MoDem boss is the choice made since last weekend, why hasn’t the Head of State chosen him? isn’t he already named? Perhaps because the hypothesis Bernard Cazeneuve has reshuffled the cards.
The former Prime Minister of François Hollande, already cited as a serious option for Matignon this summer before the appointment of Michel Barnier, had not convinced due to a lack of sufficient support on the left. Three months later, the situation has changed. Bernard Cazeneuve is pushed by several figures on the left such as Raphaël Glucksmann of the Place publique party or François Hollande who sits among the socialist deputies. The PS also seems more inclined to support the sixty-year-old than this summer and asks in a press release “the appointment of a left-wing Prime Minister”, in accordance with the results of the legislative elections of July 7 but not necessarily from the New Popular Front (NFP), to whom it “will be responsible for organizing the work and making compromises possible”. And the boss of the PS, Olivier Faure, who opposed the Cazeneuve hypothesis in August, revised his position indicating that he was not opposed to the former socialist, but specified that he did not know what he intended to do by being appointed to Matignon.
Bernard Cazeneuve’s chances of avoiding censorship
On condition of reassuring the PS and aligning with its priorities, Bernard Cazeneuve seems able to count on the votes of these deputies. Something that will be more difficult with Environmentalists. Marine Tondelier, the leader of the Greens, estimated on December 12 France 2 that the former Prime Minister “cannot represent us” since he strongly opposed the NFP. There is no point hoping for support from the rebels due to the mutual dislike between the party and Bernard Cazeneuve. The fact remains that the elected communist representatives could, depending on the policy pursued by the former socialist, support the appointment of Bernard Cazeneuve.
While the politician seems able to speak with the central bloc, the exchanges between François Bayrou and Bernard Cazeneuve have been numerous, he could also have the sympathy of certain right-wing personalities who welcome his fierce opposition to rebellious France. Beyond supporting a Cazeneuve government? Laurent Wauquiez, boss of right-wing deputies, assured that his group would not vote for censure even if his political family was absent from the government. Enough to give chances to the man on the left.
Arithmetically, Bernard Cazeneuve could resist a motion of censure with the sole support of the PS on the left, but on condition of being assured of the votes of the central bloc (EPR, MoDem, Horizons) of the right LR and elected Liot, which would bring the number of supports to 299, when the absolute majority is set at 289. By adding the votes of the PCF, Bernard Cazeneuve would have greater room for maneuver even in the event of an about-face from part of the right.
Cazeneuve ready for “real cohabitation”, and compromises?
When he was approached for Matignon a few months ago, Bernard Cazeneuve specified the line he would take as Prime Minister: “a real, credible left-wing policy” as well as “real cohabitation with Emmanuel Macron”, reported one of his relatives Parisian. A position that can satisfy the PS and the PCF, minus the other forces. But the former socialist knows that in order to hold on to Matignon, he will have to show himself capable of compromise. The fact remains that a few programmatic subjects could still get stuck: Bernard Cazeneuve wants to call into question the pension reform, a sacrifice which the President is not ready for as long as he has other options.
Will the balance of pros and cons be favorable to Bernard Cazeneuve? Support from Emmanuel Macron is estimated among Franceinfo that the appointment of the man of the left to Matignon “would have its small effect” and recalls that the head of state “loves to surprise”.
12:23 – Environmentalists reject the Bernard Cazeneuve option but do not speak of censorship
Marine Tondelier stakes out her positions: she wants a left-wing and environmentalist Prime Minister. In this, Bernard Cazeneuve can correspond, but the former socialist is not a member of the NFP, he even strongly criticized the left alliance which included LFI in its ranks. However, the general secretary of the Ecologists insisted on France 2 this Thursday, December 12 to say that “the position of Matignon must go to someone who participated in the Republican front, in the victory of the NFP”. So no more Bernard Cazeneuve option for green jacket politics.
The fact remains that in his opposition, the ecologist does not go so far as to speak of censorship against Bernard Cazeneuve which would be supported by his party. It is impossible to know with certainty which side the elected Greens will place themselves on, but the chances that they will oppose are real and could cost the former head of government his appointment as Prime Minister.