The former leader of a great democracy, who used his billions to acquire vast political influence, who knew how to use television to transform his culture, who became infamous for a series of sordid sexual affairs, who was prosecuted for multiple alleged crimes and which weakened the rule of law by not respecting the constitutional limits of its power, personalizing political conflicts until the whole country was divided between its supporters and its opponents , died on Monday, June 12 at an advanced age. No, the deceased is not called Donald Trump, but Silvio Berlusconi.
When Silvio Berlusconi burst onto the Italian political scene following a massive corruption scandal that shattered the country’s old political parties in the early 1990s, outside observers viewed him with a mixture of trepidation. and slight bewilderment. With his macho demeanor and sexist jokes, his past as a cruise ship crooner and his present as an inveterate womanizer, he seemed like an anachronistic character: a member of aopera buffa of the 18th century having teleported to the end of the 20th century and engaged in a long artistic performance. For the first ten years of his political rise, the international press tended to view him as both backward and uniquely Italian; the idea that he might be a harbinger of things to come in their own country never seemed to cross the minds of foreign correspondents, who sent their entertaining dispatches about his latest outrages at the World or to New York Times.
Yet despite the profound influence that Italy’s rich past continues to exert on this nation, and all the ways in which its culture can seem old-fashioned on a day-to-day basis, the country has a long tradition of anticipating the political future. . The city-states of medieval Italy proved to be a crucial bridge between the democratic traditions of the ancient world and the new attempts at collective autonomy launched by a few intrepid rebels in the distant British colonies of North America at the end of the Eighteenth century. Later, the vitriolic speeches of a short, chubby man named Benito Mussolini – they too initially seemed to have come from the pages of a comic opera – were to prove the main source of inspiration for even more dangerous imitators in Germany and beyond. Italy has often proved to be an unexpected political laboratory, and it proved it again after the rise of Berlusconi.
Two decades of economic stagnation and political decline
Looking back, the effect Berlusconi had on Italian politics seems awfully familiar. Berlusconi came to power by harnessing a deep and heartfelt reaction to the failures of existing institutions. His enemies constantly underestimated him due to his rudeness and pushed voters into his arms by clearly displaying their contempt for his supporters. He masterfully personalized political disputes and exploited the legal proceedings against him, portraying himself as a political martyr and repeatedly comparing himself to Jesus Christ. Although he never delivered on his promises, dominating Italian politics through two decades of economic stagnation and political decline, he was able to retain the loyalty of much of the population.
Berlusconi first caught the world’s attention as a strange curiosity. His greatest triumph is not to have been Prime Minister of Italy three times, to have remained a Senator of the Italian Republic until his last breath, or to have died a free man and one of wealthiest people in the country, despite all the legal proceedings and even the convictions he has been subjected to over the years. He leaves this world as a co-founder of a political tradition that over the past decades has come to dominate political discourse in Turkey and Brazil, India and the United States.
During the last ten years of his life, Silvio Berlusconi’s influence began to fade, slowly at first, then all at once. His last term as Prime Minister ended exactly ten years ago, when his mismanagement of the country’s public finances and the markets’ lack of confidence in his ability to implement serious reforms caused him to lose the support of the majority in parliament. His party, Forza Italia – named, in a characteristic, shameless and ingenious gesture, after the chant that Italian supporters use to support their national team – has continued to decline, falling from 47% of the vote in 2008 to 8% in 2022.
The Berlusconi show eventually bored
This is the good news: even the most important political figures can end up losing their grip on the political system. For two decades, the Berlusconi show completely dominated Italian politics and society. Then the country grew tired of his antics and its power base began to crumble. By the time of his death, he was no more than the leader of a minor coalition within a government that responded to his untimely demands with condescending smiles.
But there is also bad news. The past decade shows that the demise of populists like Berlusconi is rarely the salvation to which their critics aspire. The corrosive influence that Berlusconi has exerted on the Italian political system over the past decades is evident; his death should not prompt commentators to play down the damage he caused. But that doesn’t mean his demise will help cure Italian politics.
Italy’s last two right-wing leaders, Giorgia Meloni and Matteo Salvini, may have fewer compromising economic conflicts of interest or personal reasons to favor a weak judiciary. But they also have a much deeper ideological commitment to the far right, and an even deeper personal gratitude to leaders like Viktor Orban or (in Salvini’s case) Vladimir Putin. And it’s part of a larger trend.
Berlusconi demonstrated that the safeguards of democracy are, even in supposedly consolidated democracies, much weaker than politicians and political scientists had long assumed. But he remained a deeply personal politician, who drew his support from his charisma and cared above all about his own interests. His successors are just as willing to bend the rules or exploit their charisma, but many of them are also deeply steeped in a far-right ideology that makes them feel like they serve a larger purpose and which, if if implemented, would cause even deeper damage.
As rumors of Silvio Berlusconi’s impending death circulated on social media on Sunday night, I was having dinner with longtime Italian friends who have been complaining about Silvio Berlusconi’s influence on their country for nearly two decades. “Say what you will, it’s the end of an era,” said one, looking surprisingly wistful. “We may still miss him,” added another. I was caught off guard. “Do you really think things could be worse?” I asked. “Things can always get worse,” she replied cheerfully, taking another sip of wine.
American political scientist, Yascha Mounk is the author of The Great Experience (Editions of the Observatory).