Russia has not officially marched its troops into the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine, but the signs are already clear, says the Bellingcat group, which is collecting and analyzing the findings.
Russia has not officially marched its troops into separatist areas in eastern Ukraine, but there have already been signs of Russian troops arriving unofficially across the Ukrainian border, says the founder of the Bellingcat group, which is collecting and analyzing open intelligence. Eliot Higgins To STT.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin on Monday night, acknowledged the so-called independence of its puppet republics of Luhansk and Donetsk and announced the sending of Russian troops to the territories.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenkon Russia could offer military assistance to the regions if a threat emerges.
– It is clear that Russian troops are moving into positions. There is a lot of footage of Russian troops from those areas. The Russians are doing exactly as they said, Higgins says.
Russian military equipment and unofficial Russian forces have been widely observed in the separatist regions of Ukraine since 2014, when the war in eastern Ukraine began.
According to Higgins, it is not yet possible to say whether Russia is planning to take over the separatist territories directly and whether it also intends to attack the Ukrainian forces in order to drive them completely out of Luhansk and Donetsk.
– It’s too early to make an assessment. There are no signs of that yet, but we are closely monitoring the movements of the troops, Higgins says.
“The thermobaric bomb is a really disgusting weapon”
According to Eliot Higgins, a lot of artillery of varying range has been brought to the vicinity of the front.
– It seems that the Russians are building an artillery curtain, which can be used to shoot huge artillery concentrations into the positions of Ukrainians at the beginning of the action. It’s going to be really intense, Higgins anticipates.
Among the weapons, according to Higgins, are TOS-1A rocket launcher systems that fire thermobaric bombs. Russia has used such in Syria.
– Just before the explosion, these guns spray a cloud of fuel into the air at high pressure, which is then ignited. This creates a huge fireball and a really strong pressure wave that has been shown to have sucked people’s lungs out of their mouths. It’s a really disgusting weapon that still sets everything on fire.
According to Higgins, there are several rocket launcher systems on the way to the front.
– Almost wherever they are used, a large number of people die, Higgins says.
Web searches reveal fake videos
Open Source Intelligence OSINT refers to any type of evidence confirmed by analysis that has been collected from databases that are open to the public.
By investigating OSINT, online searchers have previously investigated, for example, the activities of Russian troops in Syria and the fate of a passenger plane shot down by separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
The material analyzed by volunteers and professionals includes satellite imagery, images published on social media, videos, and audio recordings. In addition to monitoring military forces, OSINT activists also expose disinformation spread on social media.
In recent weeks, independent researchers have, among other things, uncovered videos published by separatists in eastern Ukraine based on the metadata contained in the video files. For example, many of the published videos were created earlier than the alleged shooting date.
According to Higgins, every incident investigated has proven to be a forgery whenever the details have been confirmed.
– Of course, we are not always able to confirm this, because sometimes there is not enough information, Higgins says.
According to him, one of the typical ways of doing business in Russia is to make allegations that are not supported by any evidence that could be shown to be fake.
Finland also got into disinformation as a prop
Finland has also become a prop in the propaganda of Eastern Ukraine. Bellingcatin Higgins reported last week on Twitter a video posted by separatists alleging a firefight with Polish saboteurs.
The video includes shots and explosions that, based on the waveform of the recording and the metadata in the file, appear to come from a video filmed from Finnish military exercises in 2010. The case was also reported Helsingin Sanomat (you switch to another service) on Monday.
Bellingcatin Higgins believes disinformation factories will continue as the crisis in Ukraine progresses. The purpose of the action seems to be to paint Ukraine an attacker and a genocide of the Russian population in eastern Ukraine, from which Russia must defend its citizens.
– I think we will see a constant fairy tale from the separatist areas. I think most, if not all, of the information that comes from it is a forgery or a lie, Higgins says.