War is knocking on Belarus’ door. A year ago, Russia attacked Kiev from its territory. Now a hard inner discipline will not defeat all resistance.
At the end of February, the BYPOL resistance group claimed to have damaged a Russian reconnaissance plane at the Matshulishni military airport near Minsk with a drone attack.
The claim spread in the international media, but it has not been able to be confirmed by independent sources.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus denied the information and forwarded images of a huge Russian Beriev A-50 reconnaissance plane taxiing on the runway.
The date or location of the photos could not be verified. In the conditions of war and autocratic rule, many things remain a mystery.
What is certain, however, is that there has been resistance in Belarus. A Belarusian opposition leader living in exile Svjetlana Tsihanouskayan according to the report, the attack was carried out by two Belarusian “partisans” who managed to flee the country.
“There is still resistance”
Researcher working at the Foreign Policy Institute Margarita Zavadskaya says in an interview with that there have been groups carrying out online attacks in the country. However, strict internal control suppresses objections:
– Belarus is already a real police state, and armed resistance networks will also be detected, says the researcher. Yet resistance still exists.
Human rights defenders are also the target of persecution. A human rights activist who received the Nobel Peace Prize last year Ales Bialiatski was just sentenced to ten years in prison.
The peace award did not prevent the pronouncement of the sentence.
“The army does not want to fight in Ukraine”
The administration of the country’s autocratic leader, Lukashenko, has its limitations. Although he has secured for himself the support of the power bodies – the “siloviki” – the country’s armed forces have not been sent against the border neighbor Ukraine.
– The army of Belarus has no desire to fight on Ukrainian soil, Zavadskaya estimates.
– There have always been many connections between Belarusians and Ukrainians.
According to the researcher, the fact that the Belarusian army has not participated in Russia’s war of aggression is a sign of Moscow’s mistrust.
Belarus’s political tightrope dance has also so far prevented a derailment into war. Zavadskaya estimates that Lukashenko still believes in his own goals and is trying to use his remaining influence. Obeying Moscow’s orders can at least be delayed.
– Still, the idea of Belarus’ neutrality no longer fools anyone, says the researcher.
– The country is almost in Russia’s possession.
Lukashenko as a representative of Moscow
Lukashenko’s grand visit to China was part of raising his profile. The trip was three days in the old style, while the visits of heads of state are usually much shorter. However, the specter of the Kremlin followed on the heels of the visit:
– The whole situation can also be considered as a communication between Russia and China through the political representative, i.e. Lukashenka, compares Zavadskaya.
At the same time, the visit was a message to the West. Russia’s war in Ukraine may create new alliances between the countries.
The leader of Belarus gave full support to China’s peace initiative. According to Lukashenko, the difficult situation requires an unorthodox approach:
– We should prevent slipping into a global confrontation where there would be no winners, said Lukashenko when he met the Chinese president Xi Jinping.
In the West, China’s initiative has been rejected as pro-Russian.
Will Belarus end up as a stage for China’s weapons?
China’s foreign policy leader just visited Moscow, and the United States has warned the country against supplying weapons to Russia.
In connection with Lukashenko’s visit the American think tank iSW evaluates (you go to another service)that Belarus can get a role in the arms trade between China and Russia.
According to researcher Zavadskaya, there may be reason for doubt, because the economic sanctions of the West also apply to Belarus. Still, the ground is not necessarily the most suitable stage for weapons transport:
– Using Belarus for this purpose would perhaps be too obvious, he estimates.
Zavadskaya considers the Central Asian republics to be a more likely option.
At home, Lukashenko has to perceive Moscow’s influence. The leader of Belarus needs Russia:
– In the summer of 2020, Lukashenko had to use violence against his own people in an unprecedented way. Without Moscow’s support, there would have been a change of power in the country.
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