Vladimir Putin should be in his element in Beijing. Great defender of this animal in front of the eternal, the Russian president arrives for the start of the year of the Tiger. And above all, he is the real one guest star of his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, during the Olympic Games, in the absence of several Western Heads of State. As of Thursday, the tandem made the front page of the official Chinese press. “As China celebrates the Chinese New Year (…) the presence of Vladimir Putin at the opening ceremony (…) only makes the atmosphere even more festive”, ignites the agency Xinhua.
The competition is an opportunity for the communist regime to count its allies, after the diplomatic boycott decided by the United States and several Western countries (to protest against the repression of the Uighurs in Xinjiang and the violations of human rights) . But also to strengthen ties with them. From this Friday, February 4, Xi Jinping, who has not left China since the start of the pandemic, will again meet foreign leaders – mostly authoritarian.
The Russian and Chinese presidents will also take advantage of the event to display their closeness in front of cameras around the world in the face of a common adversary: the United States. At a time when Sino-American tensions are at their highest, and when Moscow is in open crisis with Washington over the Ukrainian issue, both intend to promote their “common vision” in terms of international security. Clearly, to ensure that the role of the United States, whether through NATO or smaller regional alliances, diminishes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks by videoconference with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, at his residence in Novo-Ogariovo near Moscow on December 15, 2021
afp.com/Mikhail METZEL
Since coming to power at the end of 2012, Xi Jinping has met his Russian counterpart, whom he describes as an “old friend”, more than any other head of state: no less than 37 times. The rapprochement between the two giants, which should result in the signing of new agreements during Putin’s visit, clearly accelerated after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. Target of Western sanctions, Moscow then been forced to turn more to Beijing.
Weakening the Western model
Each of the two countries has an interest in getting along well with its neighbour. First, they share such a long border (4200 kilometers) that bilateral tensions would force them to deploy enormous resources to defend it. Then, their economies are complementary – Moscow is a producer of raw materials; Beijing is a big consumer, and has a gigantic market, technologies and capital. Finally, the authoritarian nature of their regime and their desire to weaken the Western democratic model bring them together.
In the Russian-Ukrainian dossier, Moscow can thus count on the diplomatic support of Beijing. At the UN on Monday, China lent its support to Russia in an attempt to block the placing on the agenda of the Security Council of the Ukrainian question, requested by the United States. A few days earlier, in a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had defended “Russia’s reasonable security concerns”, adding that these these had to “be taken seriously and given a solution”.
This crisis, which divides the West, is rather the business of the communist regime. And for some observers, a worsening of the situation would not really bother him. “In the event of a major security crisis in Europe, the United States would be completely focused on it, and this would reduce by as much the time that the security advisers of the Biden Administration could devote to China”, argues Alexandre Gabuev, researcher at the Carnegie Center in Moscow. It would also make Russia even more dependent on the Middle Kingdom.
Joint military exercises
A subject of growing concern for the West, the Russian-Chinese rapprochement is reflected in growing military cooperation – less restrictive than an alliance. “If the first joint military exercises were mainly limited to small anti-terrorist actions, the situation has changed a lot. Today Russian and Chinese units are invited to participate in the main strategic exercises of the other country, and ships and planes carry out joint patrols,” notes JD Williams, a military analyst at the Rand Corporation and specialist in the Russian and Chinese armies. “These joint exercises have grown in number, size and complexity in recent years.”
Last August, more than 10,000 Russian and Chinese troops took part in joint training in northwest China, involving some 200 armored vehicles, 90 artillery pieces and around 100 aircraft and helicopters. More recently, in January, the Russian and Chinese navies launched anti-piracy exercises in the Arabian Sea, a few days after similar maneuvers in the Indian Ocean, this time accompanied by Iranian forces. Several joint exercises have also taken place in recent months off Japan, which warns of a “deterioration of the security situation”.
Putin also announced at the end of last year that Beijing and Moscow were now cooperating in the field of security. “We are even developing certain high-tech weapons, he specified. We work in the field of space (…), planes and helicopters”.
On the economic front, as early as May 2014, Russia’s turn towards China was materialized by the signing of a gigantic gas delivery contract for an amount of 400 billion dollars. After the 2019 inauguration of a first gas pipeline linking Eastern Siberia to China, called Power of Siberia, Moscow is today negotiating the construction of Power of Siberia 2, a new pipeline to double gas deliveries to the giant Chinese. A welcome lifeline as the Old Continent tries to reduce its energy dependence on Russian gas. And that Washington threatens Moscow with “devastating” economic sanctions in the event of an invasion of Ukraine.
For many experts, new Western punishments would push Moscow even further into the arms of Beijing. “If Russia is subject to new sanctions, this will facilitate the conclusion of an agreement for China concerning the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline”, estimates Mathieu Duchâtel, director of the Asia program of the Institut Montaigne.
Economic ties continue to strengthen: last month, China announced that the amount of trade with Russia in 2021 had reached a record of 147 billion dollars, surpassing that of 2019 set before the pandemic. “China is Russia’s second economic partner after Europe, but at the rate things are going, it will dethrone the Europeans by the end of the decade,” predicts Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco- Russian, in Moscow. The problem is that Sino-Russian economic relations are increasingly asymmetrical. “If China is the first partner country of Russia for commercial exchanges, Russia is the 11th partner of China, far behind the United States and Japan”, specifies this expert. In this rapprochement between the two powers, not sure that Russia is the one that has the most to gain.