A dress rehearsal. On March 14, 2024, the heads of the lists in the European elections face each other during a debate on Public Senate. Well, almost all of them. Jordan Bardella was called pale. The president of the National Rally (RN), leading the polls, has better things to do than endure the attacks of his adversaries. On the sidelines of this game, François-Xavier Bellamy offers another debate to Valérie Hayer. Two people this time. MEP LR, who portrays his rival as a woman of the left, intends to seduce right-wing Macronist voters. The Renaissance leader agrees… But does not follow up. A recent proposal from the LCI channel also remained a dead letter. Macronie looks at the MEP, stuck at 7% voting intentions. Why give voice to a rival? Let yourself be bitten in the calves by an elected official threatened with anonymity? “We’re not going to put him on a pedestal,” smiles a campaign executive.” Valérie Hayer prefers to fight against Jordan Bardella, May 2 on BFMTV.
Tell me who you’re debating with, I’ll tell you who you are. A series of confrontations are organized by television channels between now and June 9. The heads of the lists will meet this Tuesday on LCI, May 27 on BFMTV, May 30 on CNews and June 4 on France 2. These oratorical jousts tell the story of the presidential camp’s campaign. They outline its strategy, revealing its strengths and weaknesses. Three weeks before the vote, the Macronist electorate remains under-mobilized. Only 53% of Emmanuel Macron’s voters in 2022 plan to go to the polls, according to an Ipsos survey. It is urgent to wake up the troops and create interest around the vote. Thus Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will challenge Jordan Bardella on France 2 on Thursday May 23 for more than an hour. The Renaissance staff praises an “event” likely to “shine the spotlight on the election”. “Anything that helps reawaken interest in the campaign is to be taken,” notes a minister.
“It would be stupid to set up a three-way match”
Get people talking about yourself, but not just any way. The Prime Minister and Valérie Hayer challenge Jordan Bardella. Emmanuel Macron considered confronting Marine Le Pen, who declined the offer. As in 2019, Macronie favors ideological confrontation with the far right. The presidential camp is trying to reduce the election to a choice between two polar opposite political offers. He raises the specter of a “hidden Frexit” to shake up his troops and makes the candidates of the “Republican arc”, a concept used by the President of the Republic, invisible.
Besides François-Xavier Bellamy, Renaissance never responded to requests for a debate with Raphaël Glucksmann. Valérie Hayer claimed Sunday on France 3 her refusal to “participate in the left-wing primary” and invited her competitor to scrap with Manon Aubry. An MEP admits a tactical choice: “It would be stupid to set up a three-way match. Such a face-to-face match is not in our interest.” Marion Maréchal was entitled to more consideration. The head of the Reconquête list debated on CNews with Valérie Hayer, in a game that looked like training before the duel against Jordan Bardella.
The candidate is looking for the right distance with these two rivals. She ignores their proposals for debate, but does not spare them in collective confrontations. It targets Raphaël Glucksmann’s hostility to the asylum-immigration pact or the conservatism of François-Xavier Bellamy. “There is a gradation between responding to the arguments of pro-Glucksmann and debating with him,” defends a former minister.
“Pick up on the national”
Valérie Hayer gives blows… and receives them. The MEP would like to Europeanize the campaign, but is caught up in national news, a favorite area of the far right. The first thirty minutes of his duel against Jordan Bardella were devoted to it, as was the start of his duel against Marion Maréchal. “We must not run away from national politics,” Nathalie Loiseau advised him before his match against the boss of the RN. Youth violence, blocking of Sciences Po… The head of the Renew delegation is often put in difficulty when these subjects are put on the table. She struggles to give a political color to her remarks, when her adversaries are investigating the government’s case. She was thus blown away by the confidence of Marion Maréchal, and her truths delivered in a tone of evidence. “Valérie is competent, but falls short on the national level,” laments a minister. Like the executive, it suffers in these games the avalanche of French crises, so many obstacles to the development of a European discourse.
A candidate seeking a duel against the far right. At ease on European issues, but in difficulty when politics takes over. Valérie Hayer’s television performances are a concentrate of the majority’s campaign. It is generally agreed that these interventions will have a marginal impact on the French vote. In debates, she must above all be careful not to make any mistakes. A game without a false note is successful. “Politically, if you miss something, it sticks with you six times more than if you succeed in something, which will not last long,” we note in the campaign team. And then, the Renaissance list merges with the personality of Emmanuel Macron. The head of state is both a target of opposition – they turn the vote into a sanction vote – and a lever for mobilizing his own people. He shares the poster with Valérie Hayer on the poster of his program. “We are subject to the vagaries of weather which is decided at Matignon and Elysée,” notes a Renaissance deputy. And what do the debates to come matter?
.