Tuesday October 1, Nicolas Metzdorf lunches at the Elysée with Emmanuel Macron. The president tries to calm the concerns of the deputy (Together) from New Caledonia, assuring him that the territory is at the heart of the concerns. The proof: Michel Barnier will speak about the territory in his general policy declaration before the National Assembly that afternoon. Once again, Emmanuel Macron reassures the elected representative of his group. The Prime Minister will insist on the need to rebuild a territory ravaged for five months by riots. Matignon will not mention the abandonment of the constitutional reform project on the thawing of the electorate – the one which precisely ignited the powder in the archipelago in May. The Prime Minister’s declaration would be perceived by the loyalist camp as a victory for the separatists. Hand on shoulder, eyes to eyes, the president insists. Reassured, Metzdorf jumps on a scooter and heads to the Assembly. A few minutes later, patatra: “in agreement with the President of the Republic”, Michel Barnier announces that the draft constitutional law adopted in May will not be submitted to Congress.
“Emmanuel Macron had already announced the suspension of the bill in May, observes Milakulo Tukumuli, co-founder of Oceanian Awakening, present that day at the National Assembly as part of a Caledonian delegation coming to Paris. There’s nothing wrong with saying a corpse is dead.” On his bench, Nicolas Metzdorf fumes. On leaving, he threatened to vote on the motion of censure in the Barnier government the following week. For several hours, the Elysée and Matignon tried to calm the tempestuous New Caledonian elected official. The next day, before the Senate, Michel Barnier avoided mentioning the abandoned reform. On the other hand, he specifies that, in discussions on the future of the territory, “must be addressed […] the composition of the electorate and its enlargement for the next provincial elections”. A week later, Nicolas Metzdorf received a letter from the Prime Minister. He indicated that the unfreezing of the electorate was a legal and democratic imperative. Metzdorf abandoned any desire to join the motion of censure tabled by the left.
A reduced window
Matignon and the Elysée do not want to hear about any hiccups or misunderstandings. It is difficult, however, not to perceive in the episode a lack of communication within the executive on the Caledonian file. To say the least. “Matignon believes that the process initiated by the president and his former majority has failed, and that we must therefore change the method. But the Elysée thinks that he can still play a role and contribute to bringing about an agreement”, schematizes a New Caledonian actor, regular interlocutor of the executive. “The question is whether the President of the Republic will really end up relinquishing the matter or not,” says Georges Naturel, the senator (LR) of New Caledonia. “This will be the discussion in the coming weeks.” However, this point must be clarified very quickly.
After weeks on the edge of the precipice, the New Caledonian actors are losing patience. “If we procrastinate too much, the economic and social system will collapse, warns David Guyenne, president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of New Caledonia. We have a window of opportunity in November. We must not Don’t miss it.” Jean-Jacques Brot, former High Commissioner in New Caledonia, agrees. “Each day that passes does not provide a method. Business leaders are more and more worried, demoralized, and they are not the only ones. The health system is devastated, he explains. Caledonians are waiting for “We speak to them from the heart. It’s a real tragedy, and there is a need for a lot of pity, compassion and fraternity.”
Matignon seems to have taken this into account. This October 6, Michel Barnier indicated in an interview with La Tribune Sunday that he would go to New Caledonia “when the time comes”. The Minister Delegate for Overseas Territories – attached to Matignon -, François-Noël Buffet, chose New Caledonia for his first trip, from October 16 to 18. Before Parliament, the Prime Minister also outlined a road map. The presidents of the two chambers, experts in the archipelago, have agreed to lead “a mission of consultation and dialogue” and will go “soon” to New Caledonia. Pushed by parliamentarians, this intervention by Yaël Braun-Pivet and Gérard Larcher takes place within a tight timetable, while the finance bill for 2025 must soon be discussed.
To this mission is added an interministerial delegation, again placed with the Prime Minister and the minister responsible for overseas territories. Made up of senior civil servants currently being recruited, it should sail between Paris and Nouméa. Several names are circulating to head it, including that of senior civil servant Eric Thiers. Member of the mediation mission sent to New Caledonia by the president in May 2024, this former advisor to Emmanuel Macron would be suggested by the Elysée to take on this role. The composition of the delegation should be revealed in the coming days, in mid-October. “It will have to tackle the reconstruction of a territory as devastated as France in 1945,” indicates Dominique Bussereau, author of a parliamentary report on the establishment of the institutions of New Caledonia, who insists : “Time is running out.”
The risk of “hunger riots”
In this race against time, two data are at the center of concerns. The first, and most immediate, is economic. The riots ravaged a territory that had until now been one of the richest in the Pacific. With more than two billion euros in damage, New Caledonia has also lost 6,000 jobs since mid-May, according to the Institute of Statistics and Local Economic Studies. The State has already released 400 million euros. But this aid is not enough to revive a territory where 15% of GDP has gone up in smoke since the violence. At the end of August, the Congress of New Caledonia passed a resolution requesting state support of 500 billion Pacific francs (around 4.2 billion euros) in order to rebuild the archipelago. It is in this context that a transpartisan Caledonian delegation – of which Mr. Tukumuli was a member – was present the week of October 1 in Paris. Some members were received at Matignon. Others at the Elysée. She made the entire tour of all the parliamentary groups, proof of the attention paid to the file. “We came to talk about refinancing the existing economic fabric,” explains Pierre-Chanel Tutuguro, (independent) president of the UC-FLNKS group in the Caledonian Congress. “We are trying to avoid hunger riots.”
The second question is institutional, and concerns in particular the future of the electorate. Its deadline is more distant, the provincial elections which were to take place on December 15 having been postponed to the end of 2025. It is nevertheless essential. Without expanding the electorate, the next election risks being challenged in court by loyalists. This question is also a lever for the independence camp, which uses it to advance its cause: that of an increasingly loose link with France. “We would like to be able to discuss the modalities of decolonization before getting into those of the electorate,” continues Pierre-Chanel Tutuguro. So much data that the various interlocutors of the interministerial delegation designated by Matignon will have to take into account. “We are at an impasse,” says Alain Christnacht, former High Commissioner in New Caledonia and negotiator of the Nouméa agreement. “But there is a hole in the hole to get out of it. This is what Michel Barnier diagnosed “.
A “mouse hole” whose crossing promises to be eminently complex. “We have the impression that we risk resuming old practices with the same interlocutors as before, some of whom are decided not to discuss with others, remarks Jean-Jacques Brot. Will we have time to engage in a negotiation when the Prime Minister has not said with whom he plans to negotiate?” The interlocutors are indeed as varied as the points of divergence. Among the separatists, local elected officials are challenged by the young leaders of the CCAT, the field action cell which led the riots in May. Among the loyalists, we are divided between the proponents of a line intended to be moderate (Calédonie Ensemble) and another more radical one, notably supported by Sonia Backès, the president of the Southern Province. In this flammable context, the interministerial delegation will have to demonstrate extreme tact.
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