In politics, perception and reality have an unfortunate tendency to merge. Jean-Luc Mélenchon understood this well. On July 7, the rebellious leader took everyone by surprise as soon as the results of the legislative elections were announced. He claimed victory and gave Emmanuel Macron an ultimatum. “The president has the power, the president has the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern. It is ready for it.” What matters is that the NFP only obtains 182 seats, far from an absolute majority. Too bad if the former presidential majority is hot on its heels, with 168 elected representatives. A seed is sown. The idea of a victory for the left, called upon to exercise power, is instilled. Its negotiations on the appointment of a potential Prime Minister punctuate the news. We watch for the white smoke, a sign announcing the formation of a new government.
“We need to build another narrative”
The presidential camp is reduced to the rank of spectator. Emmanuel Macron refuses to enter into cohabitation with the left? A bad loser, at best. An enemy of democracy, at worst. The left has won the battle of the narrative. Time for revenge, Thursday, on the occasion of the election of the president of the National Assembly. The presidential camp wants to take up the pen again and inflict a symbolic defeat on the NFP. Deprive it of the post, to highlight its illegitimacy in demanding Matignon. “If the perch goes to an elected member of the NFP, it is one more blow to the narrative of this hypothesis of the left in power. We must build another narrative”, assumes a deputy from Ensemble pour la République (EPR). The left has inflicted mortal wounds on itself through its internal divisions, time for the coup de grâce. “This vote will foreshadow the next executive, adds the deputy for Val-de-Marne Mathieu Lefèvre. If the NFP wins, we will have an NFP government.”
Emmanuel Macron also pulls this string. The head of state establishes a direct correlation between the identity of the new president of the National Assembly and the color of the future government. In favor of a coalition of “republican forces”, the president is waiting for the “structuring” of the lower house to consider the appointment of a Prime Minister. “The election will determine the barycenter of French political life”, confides a close friend. The strategy is two-stage. First, build an alliance with moderate voices – Liot, LR – to block the left. No one doubts this outcome in the third round of voting, with a relative majority and no longer an absolute majority, as La France Insoumise acts as a scarecrow. Then, erect this alliance as a founding act of a broader government contract.
The maneuver is not devoid of intellectual shortcuts – no programmatic agreement is made here – but it serves the interests of the presidential camp. He would be free to discuss this alternative to the NFP, even if it means exploiting the scope of the vote. An anti-NFP front does not in itself carry any political offer. In the entourage of Laurent Wauquiez, hostile to any coalition, the insidious rhetoric has been noted. “We distinguish the two subjects. There is the time of the election to the positions of the Assembly, which implies agreements, then a political subject of a different nature.” A pillar of the government is annoyed: “It is a petty bourgeois calculation to make Thursday a coalition test”, when an EPR deputy recognizes the “symbolic” value of an election whose “weight must not be exaggerated.” But a story is worth a few arrangements with reality. What other cards does the former majority have in its hand, overtaken by the NFP?
The Braun-Pivet case
Time for practical work. The presidential camp is looking for the ideal candidate. Former Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet will be the EPR candidate. As the only one in the running, she will not have to submit to an internal vote. The new president of the EPR group Gabriel Attal initially wanted the central bloc to designate a single candidate at the end of an open primary. In vain. He was refused by the Horizons group, which is expected to nominate Naïma Moutchou, and similar reservations from the MoDem.
Quietly, a question is nagging the former majority: could the first act of a hypothetical coalition be the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet? Shouldn’t a new story be written, after the presidential camp’s rout at the ballot box? Under cover of anonymity, several deputies consider the profile of the elected representative from Yvelines incompatible with the history written this Thursday. Her election would reflect a denial of the result of the legislative elections, likely to fuel the eternal trial of arrogance of Macronie. “The faces of politics cannot resemble those of before the elections,” judges an interlocutor of Emmanuel Macron.” A deputy adds: “We must show that we have understood our defeat.”
Some take the reflection further. Shouldn’t we pass the baton to internalize the defeat? Offer the position to a personality foreign to Macronism as a proof of humility? “It wouldn’t be a good sign for Renaissance to keep the perch, judges a minister. It would give the impression that we are clinging to the positions while we are working on a coalition.” Names are circulating. According to Le Figarothe elected member of the Liot group Valérie Létard is considered as a “resort” candidate in the event of Yaël Braun-Pivet’s failure. The supporters of an alliance with LR would not view with a negative eye the promotion of Annie Genevard, a respected elected member and former vice-president of the Assembly. Laurent Wauquiez spoke with the three group presidents of the central bloc. The deputy of Haute-Loire does not have the feeling that the former majority is ready to give up the perch as a sign of openness. An LR executive smiles: “Wauquiez refuses any coalition. I think that seeing Genevard in the Assembly would make him tick.” Everyone has their own stories.
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