Bayrou on an ejectable seat … the PS and the RN in a position of referee

François Bayrou plays with fire: he decided to trigger the 49.3 to have the budget adopted without going through the vote of the deputies, this Monday, February 3 at 4 p.m. on Monday, as he announced in La Tribune on Sunday. A choice that inevitably implies engaging the responsibility of his government in the face of the National Assembly and to face a new mention of censorship. La France Insoumise (LFI) has already planned to deposit such a text as soon as the 49.3 is activated, which will be voted two days later, on Wednesday, February 5.

But then after weeks of negotiations, mainly with the Socialist Party (PS), and his choice to go into force, what are the Prime Minister’s chances to resist a motion of censorship? It all depends on the strategies of socialist elected officials and those of the National Rally (RN). Only these two political forces still cause doubt, all the others have decided: the rebellious, the environmentalists and the communists should vote the censorship, while the presidential camp, the right and the Liot group should support the budget of François Bayrou.

Bluff or real threat? The PS and the RN warn

The PS which refused to censor the Bayrou government during the first motion of censorship, wishing to give a chance to the Prime Minister, this time threatens to vote against the executive. The socialists took part in the negotiations, despite some interruptions in particular after words deemed too right of François Bayrou on immigration, to impose as much as possible their measures in the finance bill. But at the end, the 2025 budget voted in a joint joint committee (CMP) and which will be adopted by 49.3 is not suitable for the Left Party. “We are against the budget, he is not ours, he does not satisfy us,” said Boris Vallaud, leader of socialist deputies in Ouest-France. If he recognizes “concessions”, he judges the latter “largely insufficient to make this budget, a good budget” and confirms that censorship “is always on the table”. “But, we also know that this country needs a budget and we hear the concerns, fears of companies, communities or associations,” nuanced the elected Landes.

But the PS still seems divided on the idea of ​​censor François Bayrou. If some campaign for, others like Jérôme Guedj are “not favorable to censorship” and underlines in Les Echos The few socialist victories in negotiations. The PS National Office must meet this Monday at noon to make a decision and position itself for or against censorship. The fact remains that during the first attempted reversal of the Bayrou government, 8 elected officials supported the censorship against the advice of the majority of the party … This time these dissident deputies could be more numerous.

Besides the votes of the PS, those of the RN count. Again, far -right elected officials maintain the vagueness before making a decision this Monday, February 3. However, the tone was threatened last Thursday when Jean -Philippe Tanguy, the “Mr. Finance” of the RN, said that in the event of maintaining article 4 – the reform of electricity pricing in France by putting End of the resale mechanism of part of the nuclear energy produced by EDF at broken prices – the lepenist party will censorship. An article which was well maintained in the text voted by the CMP. However, “it is not me who decides (…), it’s Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and the group of our parliamentarians,” said the same elected on Friday January 31 on RTL. So, bluff or real threat? Expected response this Monday.

A successful censorship a few votes?

The motion of censorship must be voted by the absolute majority of the deputies present at the time of the vote, that is to say 289 votes if all the elected officials sit. The votes of the rebellious, environmentalists and communists bring the number of votes in favor of censorship to 126. If we add the 124 votes of the RN and the 16 votes of its Ciottist allies, which are not assured, the supports Censorship go to 266 votes. Still not enough. But it would be enough that 23 of 66 socialist elected officials vote the motion to overthrow François Bayrou and his government. The future of the executive could therefore be played in a handful of votes.

Another possible case: the government renounces the support of the socialists, who would join their votes to those of the NFP and bring the number of support to a censorship in 192, and tried to ensure the votes of the RN and the UDR elected officials. Without the 140 votes of the far right, no censorship motion can succeed. A detail that has not escaped Lepénist deputies as an elected official did Politico : “If there is no agreement with the PS, the spotlights will shine again on us!” He would not have escaped François Bayrou either according to a former macronist minister who considers to 20 minutes that the Prime Minister “now considers that the dynamics of censorship are more in the far right than to left”. However, by turning to the RN, François Bayrou risks committing “the same error as Michel Barnier” censored despite concessions to the far right.