A minister expressed his point of view on the far right, with a short sentence which outraged the RN. The far right is explicitly putting Bayrou’s future in the balance.
Does François Bayrou have reason to rejoice this Wednesday, after his major general policy speech? The Prime Minister intended to shake up the fixed lines of certain parliamentary groups, crack the NFP and broaden the base of deputies likely to give it tacit support. The tone used to talk about immigration which “endangers the cohesion of the nation” and its concern to quickly integrate more proportional representation into the legislative elections could have seduced the RN. His desire to restart the pension reform could have attracted the PS.
But it is clear that these efforts turned out to be quite futile. The socialists consider that the Prime Minister’s concession has the air of smoke and mirrors, since it is likely that the social partners will not succeed in changing the current pension reform by a single comma. The RN for its part made it known that the head of government was on a line far too close to that of Emmanuel Macron and Michel Barnier for the far right to grant him its favors. But the RN deputies did not see in the Prime Minister’s speech any reason to censor him. Not enough to get excited about in Matignon, but enough to breathe a sigh of relief.
Patatras a few hours later. On BFMTV, Tuesday evening, the Minister of Regional Planning, François Rebsamen, estimated that the government should be constructive, listen to parliamentarians on each bill. “Even the rebels?” asked the journalists. “Yes. Even the LFI deputies. I respect all political forces”, he replied, adding: “Except the RN. I say it here, it’s my position. I do not respect those who carry, not Fortunately, I know in my department (Côte d’Or, Editor’s note), speeches of hatred and exclusion of others.
And now the RN, which has nevertheless expressed its desire for stability, could well change its mind. “François Bayrou should quickly remind his minister that the respect due to the 11 million French voters of the National Rally is one of our main demands,” wrote Jordan Bardella in reaction on X. The president of the far-right party French adds that “insulting them is a red line that it is better not to cross when you are part of a minority government.” Other elected officials from the RN formulated the same threat, notably Yoann Gillet, deputy for Gard and spokesperson for the party, or the RN deputy for Bouches-du-Rhône Franck Allisio.
No respect, no support?
These reactions from elected officials showing annoyance are far from trivial. In reality, the threat is not as slight as Matignon might think and it is likely that François Bayrou’s advisors will alert him to the real risk of censorship based on the “insult” leveled at the RN. The Prime Minister may have forgotten that there is really no justification – on an institutional level – for opposition parties not to vote for censure in a government that they do not support. Marine Le Pen herself surprised when she recorded the prior “non-censorship” of Michel Barnier. She then explained this choice, not at all natural, by the “respect” shown by the Prime Minister towards the RN.
Observers tend to forget it: the tacit support – or lack of prior censorship – of the far right for the government is not based on programmatic support. On the contrary. It is based on only two elements: the preference for stability over instability; the demand to be heard and to be a respected interlocutor. The first element, as we saw with the fall of Michel Barnier, is very relative.
If François Bayrou does not publicly reframe his minister, he is exposed to the same fate as his predecessor. And it is likely that he will not concede salamalecs to the RN. The Prime Minister himself considered on Christmas Eve on BFMTV that the RN “does not respect a certain number of values or principles”, adding: “The values of the republic are fraternity. Does he there is brotherhood when we look at people who are in our streets as having to be excluded at all costs, I don’t believe.”