François Bayrou has already faced two censorship motions after the adoption of the 2025 budget and he should resist the next two. The Prime Minister may however be worried by the spontaneous motion announced by the PS.
The motions of censorship are linked. François Bayrou who has already resisted an attempt at reversal three times since the beginning of the year, including two just last week after the adoption of the 2025 budget by 49.3, will face a fourth censure motion this Monday, February 10 , left at 2 p.m. The text deposited by elected officials of rebellious France (LFI) is a response to the use of 49.3 by the Prime Minister for the adoption of the second part of the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), that on recipes. This censorship motion is not the last, but the penultimate concerning the adoption of the budget and the next on the third part of the PLFSS, that on spending, will be examined during the week.
Are these new motions of censorship likely to succeed? Very little. Insoumis, environmentalist and communist deputies should support the texts, but they should be the only ones as in the two previous attempts. Just they can hope to be joined by a handful of socialist elected officials, without it being enough to bring down the government. If the three left parties ensure 126 votes, it is necessary to reach the absolute majority of the deputies present in the hemicycle at the time of the vote, that is to say 289 votes if the National Assembly is complete.
The voices of the 66 elected officials of the Socialist Party (PS) and those of the 124 elected officials of the National Rally (RN) are necessary to ensure the absolute majority. But the former refused to support these motions and further postpone the adoption of a budget, even if they judge that of the “bad” government. A decision to which the majority of socialist deputies was held last week and who should still weigh on the vote of elected officials. As for the far -right deputies, they did not vote the previous motions of censorship stressing, rightly, that without the vote of the PS they had no chance of overthrowing the government. A logic that is still valid this Monday, February 10. Lepénist elected officials should therefore, once again, refrain from supporting the text.
The PS still seeks to overthrow the Bayrou government
If the PS has decided not to vote any of the censorship motions on the adoption of the state budget and the social security budget, it denies any support for the government of François Bayrou. Olivier Faure, owner of the left party, again assured to be part of the opposition this Monday, February 10 on Bfmtv : “It is not because at one point we refuse to censor the government to allow a budget for France that we should consider that we support the entire work of this government.” There is “no reason to support this government”, apart from the need to have a budget according to the first secretary of the PS. And to assert its position, the PS announced to file a spontaneous censorship motion on February 19. Which will be passed two days later, on Friday, February 21.
The chances of success of the PS censorship motion are however limited. The text will undoubtedly receive the 192 votes on the left, but will it be supported by the 124 elected officials of the RN? Several personalities on the left believe that not, like the rebellious Eric Coquerel or the socialist François Hollande. The latter has also questioned the will of the PS to censor the government ensuring on France 5on February 5, that the PS motion “is not made to bring down the government, but to challenge it”. The former president added that if the RN were to vote for this motion of censorship, the socialists “will take their responsibilities” by withdrawing it. A scenario excluded by Olivier Faure who recalled that the deposit of spontaneous censorship was supported by the majority of the party and the socialist group in order to censor François Bayrou.
The PS helped by the RN?
On paper, the RN has no reason to vote the PS censorship motion which will denounce, among other things, a lawitization of the government on subjects such as immigration. But the extreme right has already proven that she could associate her voices with those of the left to overthrow the government: she had done so in December against the government of Michel Barnier. A relative of Marine Le Pen confirmed to Politico On February 4, that the RN did not refrain from voting the text. But lepenist deputies believe in Bfmtv That it would be difficult to justify support for the text: the PS bases its censorship attempt “on migratory submersion so I think it will be complicated for us. Except to want to make a blow and want to fall for the government …”. Everything will depend on the strategy adopted by the party leadership since in the end “it is Marine Le Pen who decides”.