Banks: EU stress test begins on 96 banks, 13 Italian ones involved

Almost a hundred European banks will be involved in the new simulations to evaluate their balance sheet resilience to hypothetical adverse situations (stress tests), based on the exercise that theEuropean Banking Authority (EBA) launched today together with the European Central Bank. The EBA will subject 64 banks in the Union to the simulation, of which 51 are part of the euro area or subject to the single supervision of the ECB and which represent 75% of the banking sector of the European Union and Norway as a whole. In parallel, the ECB will carry out similar simulations for 45 banks which are not part of the 51 of the Eba sample, for a total of 96 banks involved in this exercise.

The results will be published at the beginning of August. In particular, the adverse scenario on the basis of which the performance of the banks’ key balance sheet parameters will be assessed involves a cumulative decline in GDP equal to 6.3%, over the period from 2025 to 2027.

Among them Italian banks, from the Eba sample members include Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banco Bpm, Bper Banca, Cassa Centrale Banca – Credito Cooperativo Italiano, Iccrea Banca – Istituto Centrale del Credito Cooperativo, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca – Banca di Credito Finanziario and UniCredit. In parallel the ECB provided the list of its further championit includes Banca Mediolanum, Banca Popolare di Sondrio, Cassa Centrale Banca-credito Cooperativo Italiano, Credito Emiliano, Finecobank.

The European banks that they had to show a negligent excessive optimism in the new round of simulations on their resistance to adverse situations (stress tests), they risk inspections, together with an escalation of ECB supervisory measures. This is stated by the institution itself, which in the press release on the new simulations launched today together with the EBA (European Banking Authority) notes that in past editions of the stress tests “some banks submitted forecasts that were excessively optimistic”, given that “they did not fully reflect the impact of the stress scenario given their specific risk profiles”. And for this reason “during the 2025 financial year – states the institution – the ECB will consequently strengthen its review of insufficiently prudent documentation. Banks that demonstrate this behavior will undergo further checks in the evaluation phase, including potential on-site visits. Based on the data collected, some banks may be subject to inspections after the stress tests have concluded, to identify structural weaknesses in their assessment system and to improve their stress testing capacity.”

Furthermore, “banks that repeatedly fail to remedy” these shortcomings “may be subject to measures as part of an escalation process in subsequent financial years”, adds the ECB.