(Finance) – The Note on macroeconomic projections for Italy in the four-year period 2024-2027developed by the experts of Bank of Italy as part of the coordinated exercise ofEurosystemoutlines a scenario characterized by moderate economic growth, low inflation and a stable job marketdespite a context of high international uncertainty. The projections, based on information available until November 27, are corrected for the different number of working days compared to those of the MEF, reported in the medium-term budget structural plan published on September 27.
For 2024, an increase in GDP of 0.5% is expected, with an acceleration towards 1% per year in the following three yearssupported by the consolidation of domestic consumption and the recovery of exports. Investments will be influenced by the reduction in incentives for residential construction, but will benefit from projects linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) and the gradual decline in financing costs.
Inflation would remain contained, reaching 1.1% in 2024, 1.5% in the following two years and 2% in 2027. This increase would mainly be attributable to the reduction in the negative impact of energy prices and, in 2027, to the temporary effects of the introduction of the ETS2 regulation on emissions trading. Core inflation would fall from 2.2% in 2023 to just over 1.5% in the three-year period 2025-2027, with the pressures deriving from labor costs largely offset by companies’ profit margins.
Employment will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than output. The unemployment rate, currently at 6.1%, will remain stable until 2027, ensuring a relative solidity of the labor market.
The forecasts are conditioned by significant risk factors, linked to geopolitical tensions and a possible tightening of international protectionist policies, which could penalize exports and the confidence of families and businesses. On the other hand, any prolonged decline in demand could negatively impact wages, profit margins and prices, influencing the general performance of the economy.
The report shows that moderate growth and inflationary stability will depend on consolidation of foreign demand, from the management of energy costs and the implementation of the reforms envisaged in the PNRR, in a context of balance between economic sustainability and social support policies.