The war in Ukraine has dramatically changed NATO’s attitude towards Baltic defense. The weakest link in the defense is the narrow country connection to the rest of Europe besieged by Russia and Belarus.
TALLINN Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have had no misconceptions about their eastern neighbor before.
By launching a full-scale attack on the President of Ukraine Vladimir Putin however, has shown that modern Russia is capable of very indifferent and relentless action.
– The situation is really scary. Putin is not even secretly launching a military operation against an independent state, the Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas comment (switch to another service).
Estonia immediately requested security consultations in accordance with Article 4 of the NATO Charter. The article states that any NATO member state may request a meeting of the NATO Council if it experiences a threat to its territorial integrity, political independence or security.
Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg also said the Defense League is activating its defense plans.
In the next few days, a mechanized British battalion will arrive in Estonia, in addition to the combat unit already in the country.
An additional pot of 380 million for national defense
Thus, by fighting in Ukraine, Russia inadvertently strengthens Estonia’s defense.
Researcher at the Estonian International Defense Policy Research Institute (ICDS) Martin Hurt notes to that Estonia has learned from the war in Ukraine since 2014.
Based on these lessons, Estonia has modified its defense plans and made decisions on material procurement. In mid-January, the Estonian government decided to invest an additional € 380 million in national defense.
– This will finance long-term needs, including the replenishment of munitions stockpiles. So it’s not about any panic purchases, Hurt says.
However, according to him, even the best efforts of Estonia are not enough, because the strike ability on Russia’s western border is superior to Estonia.
For this reason, NATO membership is a vital condition for Estonia’s national defense.
The President of Estonia Alar Karisin defense policy adviser Liis Mure tells that a relatively small NATO force has so far been deliberately held in the country.
In addition to Estonia’s own defense forces, a British-led battalion combat unit has been stationed in the Tapa garrison. The 1,200-strong unit includes about 850 Britons, the rest from France, Denmark and Belgium.
However, Estonia will be able to receive a much larger number of troops quickly.
– Plans have been prepared for this and the reception of troops has been practiced. It’s secret information that I can’t reveal any more, Mure says.
The Suwalk Corridor is the only ground connection to NATO
This is an area 97 km wide between Poland and Lithuania. It is the only land connection of the Baltic States to other NATO countries.
It is very vulnerable for NATO, as Suwalki is under pressure from Russia’s heavily armed Kaliningrad region and Belarus.
According to Liis Mure, all transport routes for additional troops are both important and challenging in a crisis situation. At present, NATO troops are transported to Estonia mainly by air, heavy equipment by sea.
– However, in the event of a failure of air transport, the Suwalk corridor is strategically important.
Admittedly, Suwalk’s weakness has also been noted in NATO.
– Defense plans are always drawn up taking into account all the factors that may prevent the implementation of the plans, Mure states.
Martin Hurt says the importance of the corridor has diminished over the years.
– Today, sea and air transport are more important.
In addition to Suwalk, the question mark for the defense of Estonia and the rest of the Baltics is also Finland and Sweden, which are not members of NATO.
Officially, they have no role in Estonia’s defense plans.
– However, Finland and Sweden are NATO’s closest partners and their ability to cooperate militarily is perfect, says Mure.
– I believe that when the reality comes, this cooperation will also take place.